- Buying activity improves in seaborne market
- Positive economic developments in China boost sentiment
Indian iron ore export prices remained firm this week, driven by a combination of active export inquiries and a rise in global iron ore prices. Exporters report improved market activity, with several deals concluded while a few negotiations were still ongoing.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index inched up by $1.5/t w-o-w to $64.5/t FOB east coast on 17 July. Indian export prices have reached their highest level in four and a half months, with the last similar price level observed at the end of February 2025.
Around 225,000 t Fe57% fines were sold at $75-76/t CFR China this week in the uptick prices in the sea market. A few lower-grade fines shipments were also heard from east coast.
Market scenario
Market participants attributed this upward trend to positive macroeconomic developments in China, which have enhanced sentiment in the seaborne market.
An east India-based exporter noted, “Chinese buyers are actively seeking Indian fines cargoes, which has led to a rise in bids. The market sentiment is clearly improving with expectations of a stimulus package from the Chinese government.”
This optimism is further reflected in the keeping of discounts firm for lower-grade ore. The 57% Fe fines are currently being offered with a 16-18% discount, while 54% Fe cargoes are trading with a 22-24% discount. Early-loading cargoes are fetching a premium, signalling robust short-term demand.
Another Odisha-based miner mentioned, “We have managed to conclude multiple export deals in the current higher price band, showing that the market is responding well to global cues.”
However, challenges remain on the supply side. Heavy monsoon rainfall in the eastern coastal belt has disrupted iron ore production and material dispatch, impacting overall cargo availability. An exporter commented, “Material movement has slowed down considerably due to weather conditions, which might affect loading schedules in the short run.”
According to reports, Chinese traders’ quotations were relatively positive and aligned with the market. However, the rise in raw material prices has squeezed the profit margins of steel mills, limiting their willingness to purchase at higher prices.
With strong fundamentals from China and anticipation of further stimulus, Indian iron ore export prices are expected to stay supported in the near term.
Chinese spot prices stable w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines in China increased by $4/t w-o-w at $99/t CFR on 16 July. Prices increased due to rising market liquidity and trade volumes. Strong iron ore fundamentals and expectations for higher hot metal production supported steady steel mill margins and increasing demand for high-grade products. Supportive macroeconomic policies and rising coke prices boosted sentiment in the ferrous sector.
DCE iron ore futures climb w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract rose by RMB 22/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 785.5/t ($109/t) on 17 July. Meanwhile, prices saw an increase of RMB 10/t ($1.5/t) on a d-o-d basis.
Rationale
- Four (4) deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window and taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received fourteen (14) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and nine (9) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, Indian export prices will remain supported by strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment, backed by favourable macroeconomic factors in the Chinese market.
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