Australia: Rio Tinto’s iron ore production recovers q-o-q in Q2CY’25

• Output rebounds in Q2 after cyclone disruption in Q1
• CY’25 production guidance at 323-338 mnt

Rio Tinto’s iron ore production from the Pilbara in Western Australia stood at 83.7 million tonnes (mnt) in Q2CY’25. On a q-o-q basis, production rose by 20% from 69.8 mnt in Q1CY’25, largely driven by a rebound from the disruptions caused by four tropical cyclones, which had led to an estimated 13 mnt loss in the previous quarter. Y-o-y, production was up 5% from 79.7 mnt in Q2CY’24.

Pilbara iron ore recorded its strongest Q2 output since 2018, rebounding effectively from severe weather disruptions in Q1. Meanwhile, the first Simandou (high-grade iron ore project in Guinea) shipment has been brought forward to around November 2025. For the year, Rio Tinto expects 0.5 to 1.0 mnt of shipments from the SimFer scope (Blocks 3 & 4 of Simandou part operated by Rio).

At the Iron Ore Company of Canada (IOC), pellet and concentrate production was recorded at 2.5 mnt in Q2CY’25. This marked a 7% uptick q-o-q from 2.3 mnt and a 14% higher y-o-y, largely due to improved operational stability across mining operations and processing. Significant focus on improving pit health led to Q2 record for total material moved from the mine. The annual plant shutdown in June was completed and followed by successful commissioning and ramp-up of production rates.

Iron ore pellet and concentrate production guidance remained unchanged at 9.7-11.4 mnt for CY’25.

All figures mentioned are on 100% basis, which means that the shipments include material transported from the Pilbara mines to the portside trading facility in China, which may not be sold onward by the group during the same period.

Shipments increase after disruptions ease

Rio Tinto’s Pilbara shipments in Q2CY’25 stood at 79.9 mnt (100% basis), higher by 13% q-o-q and largely stable y-o-y. The cyclone-led disruptions constrained logistics in the earlier quarter, though operations resumed in March, aiding the partial recovery. Port maintenance was delayed from Q1 to Q2, with some work extending into Q3, leading to shipments falling 3.9 mnt short of total production.

Guidance remains unchanged 

The miner maintained its production guidance for CY’25 at 323-338 mnt but expects it to land towards the lower end of the range, given Q1 setbacks. The shipment outlook remains closely tied to weather, while progress in Pilbara also depends on timely approvals for new mining zones. With limited room to offset further weather disruptions, any additional setback could weigh on performance.