LME nickel prices dip w-o-w as Indonesia raises mining quota, demand stays soft

• China doubles nickel reserves amid price slump
• Philippines reverses nickel ore export ban

Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) slipped about 1% w-o-w last week, with the 3-month contract closing at $15,140/tonne (t). LME nickel stocks edged up to 203,900 t from 203,600 t a week earlier, reflecting a steady build in inventories as Indonesian supply remained robust, and demand from the global stainless steel market stayed muted.

Key global updates

Indonesia approves record mining quota, demand forecast remains muted

Indonesia’s approval of a record 364 million tonne (mnt) nickel mining quota for the next 25 years heightened market concerns over a prolonged supply glut. Meanwhile, global macro uncertainty, driven by slower growth forecasts from the World Bank and OECD, along with weak Chinese industrial data, further dampened sentiment. Despite a brief rally to a one-month high of above $15,400/t in early July, speculative selling and cautious downstream buying kept prices under pressure.

China doubles nickel reserves amid price slump

China has reportedly doubled its strategic nickel reserves in 2025, buying up to 100,000 t of high-purity nickel as prices hit multi-year lows. This aggressive stockpiling aims to secure supply for stainless steel and EV batteries amid US trade tensions, with imports in the first five months more than doubling y-o-y.

Philippines reverses nickel ore export ban, easing supply concerns

The Philippines has reversed its planned ban on nickel ore exports, opting to maintain shipments to key markets such as China. The decision was welcomed by the local industry, which argued that a ban would disrupt jobs and investment. Continued exports from the Philippines are expected to support Chinese stainless steel and battery sectors, keeping global nickel supply stable.

Outlook

With Indonesian output expected to remain high and demand still lagging, there is limited upside for LME nickel in the near term. Unless there is a sharp recovery in stainless steel or unexpected supply disruptions, nickel prices are likely to remain soft amid persistent oversupply and rising inventories.