India: South African thermal coal portside prices inch up, demand still weak

• Sponge iron prices in India exhibit mixed trends w-o-w
• Outlook remains range-bound amid steady stocks

South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports edged up this week, though overall sentiment stayed flat. Exw-Gangavaram RB2 (5500 NAR) rose by INR 50/t w-o-w to INR 7,650/t, while RB3 (4800 NAR) moved up to INR 6,650/t. Despite higher indices, there was no immediate market impact in India. A marginal $1-2/t rise in recent offers, driven largely by Chinese buying interest. CNF offers for RB2 were steady at $80-81/t and RB3 at $68-69/t. Some fresh demand for RB1 seen recently in market. However, trade remained dull overall as buyers adopted a wait-and-watch approach.

Domestic coal prices stable amid poor demand

Domestic coal prices remained flat this week as demand stayed weak. BigMint’s assessment showed 5000 GCV and 4500 GCV grades unchanged at INR 4,700/t and INR 4,250/t exw-Bilaspur. SECL auctions saw subdued participation, with only small quantities booked as industrial buyers held back from fresh purchases. Market offers stayed random amid selling pressure.

Indian portside coal stocks steady

Portside thermal coal inventories in India were largely unchanged this week at around 15.86 mnt, compared with 15.87 mnt last week. Lower arrivals were balanced by limited offtake, keeping stocks steady.

Sponge iron prices mixed across regions

Indian sponge iron prices remained under pressure this week, declining by INR 100-300/t in some regions, while edging up by INR 50-100/t in others. At close, PDRI was assessed at INR 21,700-26,200/t, while CDRI tags stood at INR 23,800-28,700/t exw. The market remained bearish, reflecting weak demand and oversupply in semi-finished and finished steel segments. Buyers stayed cautious, limiting fresh bookings and waiting for further price corrections.

Export market update: IUndices rise but impact muted

Export offers rose slightly w-o-w, supported by fresh Chinese demand. FOB Richards Bay RB2 increased by $1 to $68/t, while RB3 stayed at $57/t. Despite the hike in indices earlier this week, Indian buyers showed little response, keeping portside prices broadly stable. Market participants noted that unless there’s a strong rise in global demand or freight disruptions, prices are likely to remain range-bound.

Outlook

South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports are likely to stay range-bound in the coming week. Domestic demand remains weak, inventories are comfortable, and most buyers are cautious. Global demand from China could lend some support, but without sustained industrial buying or new supply disruptions, major price movements appear unlikely in the near term.