- Coal stocks at power plants edge down
- Global prices show mixed movements
Indonesian thermal coal prices remained largely stable at major Indian ports during the week ending 4 July 2025, despite a subdued market sentiment.
According to BigMint’s latest assessment, the 5000 GAR grade was priced at INR 7,400/tonne (t) at Kandla and INR 7,300/t at Vizag. The 4200 GAR grade followed suit, settling at INR 5,750/t at Kandla and INR 5,650/t at Vizag. Lower calorific-value (CV) coal also showed no significant fluctuations, with the 3400 GAR grade holding steady at INR 4,300/t at Navlakhi Port.
Stable portside inventories reflect demand-supply equilibrium
Portside coal inventories across India recorded a marginal w-o-w dip to 15.86 million tonnes (mnt), compared with 15.87 mnt in the previous week. The minor change may be attributed to a balance between incoming shipments and stable, albeit subdued, consumption.
Power sector stocks see slight decline but remain adequate
Coal stocks at Indian power plants declined slightly, to 61.18 mnt as of 3 July 2025, from 61.47 mnt a week prior. Despite the fall, current inventories are sufficient to support approximately 20 days of electricity generation under standard operating conditions, thereby ensuring short-term fuel security for thermal utilities.
However, supply distribution remained uneven, with 14 power stations reporting critically low coal stocks. Among these, eight rely on domestic coal, five on imported coal, and one on washery rejects, highlighting continued logistical and procurement challenges for some utilities.
International market exhibits mixed price movements
Global benchmark prices of Indonesian coal showed divergent trends over the past week, amid persistent oversupply concerns and softened demand from major buyers such as China and India. The 5800 GAR grade declined by $0.53/t w-o-w to $71.43/t, reflecting ongoing bearishness in the international market.
Conversely, the 4200 GAR grade saw a slight uptick of $0.29/t w-o-w to $40.11/t, potentially due to opportunistic spot buying or short-term logistical disruptions. Meanwhile, the 3400 GAR grade recorded a marginal decline of $0.06/t to $28.16/t.
Market outlook
Indonesian coal prices at Indian ports are expected to stay range-bound, supported by adequate stocks but weighed down by weak industrial demand. Global cues remain mixed, with limited upside unless domestic demand surges.
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