- Geopolitical tensions drive up LME prices
- Domestic scrap prices see upward trend
India’s imported aluminium scrap prices remained range-bound with minor fluctuation w-o-w. Buying activity in the market for the week under review was heard to be moderate. Meanwhile, LME aluminium prices hit a 3-month high during yesterday’s closing (23-06-2025), as US airstrikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities. This development has raised the possibilities of energy prices heading north and disruptions to metal shipments from the Middle East.
BigMint assessed Tense scrap from the US at $1,990/t, stable w-o-w, while Wheels from the UK stood at $2,510/t, down by $20/t w-o-w, both CFR west coast, India. At the time of reporting, London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices stood at $2,588/t, up 2.5% w-o-w as compared to $2,525/t last week.
Aluminium prices on the LME surged to a three-month high after US airstrikes on Iran raised fears of energy cost spikes and supply disruptions. With energy making up to 45% of smelting costs and the Middle East contributing nearly 9% of global output, concerns over the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushed the benchmark price up by up to 2%.
Market insights
Aluminium scrap prices remained largely range-bound over the week, with only minor fluctuations observed. Suppliers’ offers continued to stay elevated amid ongoing shortages, especially for material coming in from the US. Offers from US suppliers to India are still limited, with only a few deals being concluded.
Scrap from the UAE continues to arrive, but prices remain high. UAE-origin extrusion scrap is being offered at $2,530-2,550/t, while buyers are bidding lower at $2,500-2,520/t.
Additionally, a few deals for UK-origin Zorba 95-5 scrap have been heard concluded between $2,160-2,170/t.
A market source noted, “The market doesn’t follow LME trends when prices are down, but once LME rises, suppliers immediately increase their offers.”
On a w-o-w basis, domestic aluminium scrap prices have also risen, supported by persistent shortages and a sudden spike in LME aluminium prices due to Middle East tensions.
Firm imported scrap prices have also kept semi-finished product prices steady. Offers for ADC12 (OEM approved) in Delhi are heard at INR 234,000-235,000/t, while in Chennai, they are at INR 235,000-236,000/t. However, buyers are still bidding between INR 231,000-233,000/t in both regions.
Offers for US Taint Tabor HRB 2-3% scrap were heard at $2,150-2,160/t, while buyers’ bids remained lower, at around $2,100-2,120/t. Market participants are waiting for stability, as buyers remain cautious due to extreme volatility in LME aluminium prices.
BigMint’s ADC12 (OEM approved) settlements for June 2025 were at INR 228,000/t in Delhi and at INR 230,000/t in Chennai. For July 2025, expectations point to higher settlements, supported by strong scrap prices and a hike announced by a major automaker.
Silicon price trends
According to BigMint’s assessment, silicon 553 prices from China declined by $5/t to $1,190/t CFR Mundra on a w-o-w basis.
Outlook
Prices are expected to experience slight increases due to ongoing supply shortages and persistent geopolitical tensions. However, buying activity is expected to stay low to moderate, as most participants remain cautious given the current market conditions and the volatility of LME aluminium prices.
Leave a Reply