Supply constraints, demand uncertainty drive volatility
ZCE futures decline by RMB 116/t ($16/t) w-o-w
CBC: Chinese silico manganese (Mn: 65%, Si: 17%) prices inch down slightly by RMB 230/t ($32/t)w-o-w at RMB 5,450-5,720/t ($758-$796/t) exw, including taxes.
Silico manganese prices hold steady despite supply challenges and uncertain demand. South African port strikes raise ore premiums, while production limits in Inner Mongolia restrict output. Rising energy costs squeeze smelting margins. Exporters face increased costs due to carbon tariffs, keeping the market outlook cautious.
Market updates
Output curbs, demand support market: On the supply side, producers in key regions cut output and raised prices, while Inner Mongolia’s off-peak policy continued to limit capacity. Leading players-maintained output via tech upgrades. On the demand side, improved bids from southwest steel mills and futures short covering supported sentiment.
Manganese ore port stocks declined, and South African disruptions kept high-grade prices firm. However, downstream losses capped raw material price gains. The EU’s carbon tariff rules raised export cost pressure, partly balanced by domestic policy support.
Supply disruptions push up premiums: The manganese ore market remains structurally imbalanced. Delays in high-grade ore shipments due to the South African port strike have driven traders to source alternatives from Gabon, raising premiums on those grades.
While low-priced port stocks are being gradually absorbed, silico manganese producers remain near breakeven, keeping raw material purchases conservative. Although electricity costs dipped slightly during the wet season, smelting margins continue to face pressure due to higher energy use from lower-grade ore.
Mixed trends in downstream demand: Weak construction steel output continues to weigh on traditional demand, while rising orders for new energy battery materials offer limited support. Steel mills remain cautious with inventory, with major players like HBIS maintaining low turnover.
Demand from southwest China has recently become a key price driver. On the export front, demand improved, supported by electric vehicle policies in Southeast Asia. However, the increased requirements for carbon footprint certification have led to higher compliance costs.
ZCE futures inch down: Silico manganese futures on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) for September 2025 deliveries inched down by RMB 116/t ($16/t) w-o-w to RMB 5,552/t ($772/t) on 9 June compared to RMB 5,668/t ($788/t) on 26 May.
Outlook: In the short term, prices will likely remain volatile and firm. Market participants will need to track labour negotiations in South Africa, power policies in Inner Mongolia, steel mill maintenance, manganese ore arrivals, bidding trends, and potential impacts from fluctuations in global manufacturing PMI.
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