- Deals largely absent in market
- Current prices not viable for export deals
India’s iron ore fines export index remained rangebound this week, reflecting subdued market sentiment and limited trading activity. Market participants reported weak demand for Indian-origin material, particularly from China, the key buyer, where mills have shifted focus to cheaper alternatives available in the global market.
Prices and deals:
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index remained stable w-o-w at $59/t FOB east coast, on 5 June. Exporters dealing in Fe57% fines reportedly offered discounts of 20-22% compared to the global index, which was largely similar to last week’s.
Around 80,000 t of fines export deals were recorded by BigMint in this publishing window, while other parties opted for a wait-and-watch mode amid declining prices.
“The Chinese mills are very price-sensitive at the moment. They are avoiding Indian cargoes due to high freight costs and are instead sourcing lower-grade material from other origins at more competitive prices,” said a trader based in eastern India.
However, no significant deals were recorded during the current publishing window, as most exporters adopted a wait-and-watch approach amid ongoing uncertainty.
Another exporter mentioned: “Exporters are hesitant to offer aggressively.”
A market participant said, “With the current price volatility and weak demand from China, most sellers prefer to stay on the sidelines rather than commit at lower levels.”
The overall sentiment remains cautious, and market activity is expected to stay limited in the short term. Prices are likely to remain stable in the coming days, barring any unexpected changes in demand or supply fundamentals.
A miner informed, “With monsoon season approaching and port logistics expected to tighten, some sellers may wait for domestic cues to strengthen.”
In the absence of strong buying interest or supportive global cues, the Indian iron ore export market may continue to tread water in the near term.
Chinese spot prices down w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines in China decreased by $1/t w-o-w to $96/t CFR on 4 June. The drop was driven by mills prioritizing margin preservation and opting for mid-grade blend optimization. Restocking remained limited to need-only purchases, while falling port stocks fuelled expectations of a near-term rise in lump premiums.
DCE iron ore futures down w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract inched down RMB 6/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 701/t ($98/t) on 5 June. Meanwhile, prices remained under pressure on d-o-d basis.
Rationale
- No deal for Fe 57% was noted during this publishing window, and not considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-three (23) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and sixteen (16) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 100% weightage.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, iron ore export prices may fluctuate in the coming days amid uncertainty in the market for deals and demand from China.
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