India: BigMint’s pellet export index drops to 2-month low on weaker trades

• Domestic realisations continue to be higher than exports
• Global iron ore prices fall marginally w-o-w

Pellet export prices from India remained under pressure this week, impacted by weaker market sentiment and a decline in both spot and futures iron ore indices.

“Apart from a cargo traded from south India yesterday, we haven’t heard any deals from India in the last one week”, said a trader source in conversation with BigMint.

An Indian pellet-maker recently concluded an export deal for 50,000 t (Fe63%, 2.5% alumina) via tender. The deal was recently concluded at around $96/t FOB India, as per sources. In the last tender, an export deal for 50,000 t was concluded at around $96-97/t FOB India. Due to the decline in seaborne iron ore prices, bids decreased for the export tender.

Price update:

BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al) export index (FOB east coast) decreased by $1/t w-o-w to $91.5/t on 4 June 2025 against 28 May. The index has fallen to a two-month low, as per data maintained with BigMint.

Domestic vs. export market:

Indian sellers, on the other hand, are holding back on export offers, awaiting price improvements, as current bids remain significantly below workable levels.

Domestic prices exceeded export offers by around INR 1,800/t ($21/t), as domestic tags witnessed a drop w-o-w. Pellet (Fe63%) prices in Odisha’s Barbil were recorded at INR 7,650/t ($90/t) exw, stable w-o-w. Meanwhile, ex-plant export realisation in exports from Barbil stood at INR 5,800/t ($68/t) exw, down by INR 250/t ($3/t) w-o-w.

The domestic market continue to offer better realisations compared to exports. However, sluggish demand in the semi-finished and downstream steel segments, coupled with elevated raw material costs, is making it difficult for sellers to conclude deals at higher price levels.

Rationale

• No confirmed deals from India’s east coast were recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade. Thus, this category was not taken into consideration for today’s price calculations and accorded 0% weightage in the index calculation. Click here for the detailed methodology.
• Ten (10) indicative prices were received, and seven (7) were considered for the calculation of the index and given 100% weightage.

Factors impacting pellet exports

• Chinese iron ore fines prices down w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index fell by $1/t w-o-w at $95/t CFR China. The drop was driven by mills prioritising margin preservation and opting for mid-grade blend optimisation. Restocking remained limited to need-only purchases, while falling port stocks fuelled expectations of a near-term rise in lump premiums.
• DCE iron ore futures recover marginally today: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract recovered today by RMB 6/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 704.5/t ($98/t).

Outlook

As per BigMint’s analysis, pellet export prices are expected to remain under pressure, and the likelihood of near-term export deals remains low unless there is a significant recovery in buying interest or price levels.