- Aluminium premiums for US up 54% since Friday
- Japan’s primary aluminium imports rise sharply
India’s imported aluminium scrap prices increased by up to $50-60/t this week, reflecting bullish sentiment amid robust global demand and persistent supply constraints. The recent doubling of US aluminium tariffs to 50%, which takes effect on Wednesday (4 June 2025), also added to market uncertainty, intensifying competition for available scrap and supporting elevated prices. Tight raw material availability and firm price settlements by a major automaker underpinned the price uptrend.
BigMint assessed Tense scrap from the US at $1,990/t, up by $30/t w-o-w, while Wheels from the UK were up $40/t w-o-w to $2,520/t, both CFR west coast, India. At the time of reporting, London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices stood at $2,446/t, largely stable w-o-w.
Market sentiments
India sees strong scrap demand, supply crunch to continue
Imported aluminium scrap prices remained firm amid stable LME levels and a continued shortage in the market. This tight supply, coupled with rising raw material costs, also supported the prices of ADC12 aluminium alloy ingots. For June 2025, India’s leading automaker settled ADC12 prices at INR 226,750/t.
According to market participants, demand for ADC12 remained strong, and the shortage of alloy-making raw materials is expected to persist through Q2FY’26. Meanwhile, select scrap grades – such as Wheels from the UK and Extrusion from the Middle East – were offered at a premium due to improved market demand.
India’s leading primary aluminium producer is reportedly procuring used beverage can (UBC) scrap at lower prices from smaller regional markets, with recent purchases at INR 173,000/t DAP. For material sourced from the north, including Delhi, bids stood at INR 164,000/t. However, many local suppliers preferred to sell within their local markets at around INR 163,000/t, as doing so offered better margins compared to supplying directly to the plant. This trend highlights the ongoing price sensitivity and competitive dynamics in the domestic scrap market.
US tariff hike to prompt significant trade flow shifts
The recent hike in US aluminium tariffs is expected to prompt Asian producers to redirect shipments towards Europe, potentially reshaping global trade flows. Additionally, the tariff gap between imported aluminium products and auto parts may offer a competitive edge to Asian auto-part manufacturers, who could benefit from lower relative costs and increased export opportunities.
Countries in Asia, such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, with established auto-parts manufacturing bases, are well-positioned to absorb aluminium volumes redirected from the US market. This is because tariffs on imported auto parts are lower than those on raw aluminium and steel, giving Asian auto-part manufacturers a cost advantage and potential export growth opportunity.
South Korea and Japan are the largest aluminium importers in Asia after China. In 2024, South Korea imported $8.19 billion worth of aluminium, while Japan’s imports totalled $8.20 billion, reflecting strong demand from the automotive, electronics, and construction sectors.
Additionally, aluminium premiums for US buyers surged following Trump’s tariff hike announcement. The duty-paid premium hit $0.58/lb ($1,279/t), up 54% since Friday and 164% since early 2025. The US, a major aluminium importer – mainly from Canada – relies on overseas supply for sectors such as transport and packaging.
Japan’s ADC12 imports surge
Japan’s imports of secondary aluminium ADC12 alloy ingots rose to 94,020 t in April 2025, marking a 37% increase y-o-y and a 15% rise from March, according to sources. Primary aluminium imports also saw significant growth, climbing 38% y-o-y and 26% m-o-m to 105,853 t.
Domestic aluminium production in Japan increased by 2.5% to 145,081 t in April, while shipments grew 1.4% to 144,564 t, as revealed by the Japan Aluminium Association. The gains were supported by higher output of flat-rolled aluminium and other aluminium products, indicating strong demand in the sector.
Silicon prices stable w-o-w
According to BigMint’s assessment, silicon 553 prices from China remained steady at $1,250/t CFR Mundra on a w-o-w basis.
Outlook
The higher tariff on imports may boost demand for aluminium scrap in the US, as scrap remains exempt from these tariffs. This shift could potentially drive scrap prices upward in the coming months, as manufacturers seek cost-effective alternatives to imported primary aluminium.
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