India’s met coke prices decline to 5-month low amid weak trading activity

• Met coke prices in India fall up to INR 800/t ($9) w-o-w
• China’s coke prices fall further by RMB 50-55/t ($7-8) w-o-w 

India’s metallurgical coke (met coke) market continues to witness a consistent decline in prices, driven primarily by subdued demand and an absence of active trade.

Over the past few weeks, met coke prices have been trending downward on a w-o-w basis, with no substantial deals reported in the open market.

BigMint’s latest assessments show that 25-90 mm blast furnace (BF) grade coke prices fell to INR 31,500/t ex-Jajpur, marking a w-o-w decline of INR 800/t. Jajpur prices have hit a five-month low, as per data maintained with BigMint. In Gandhidham, prices were reported at INR 30,800/t ex-works, down by INR 200/t, attributed to muted buying interest.

According to market sources, unofficial trade offers have surfaced in the range of INR 29,500 – 31,000/t exw, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment.

Key factors behind decline

• Lack of trade activity: The primary factor behind falling prices is the lack of active buying interest. Steel manufacturers, who are the primary consumers of met coke, have slowed down their procurement amid a broader downtrend in steel prices. With steel prices continuing to slide, producers are reluctant to replenish raw material inventories at previous cost levels.
• Weakness in steel market: Met coke demand is intrinsically linked to the health of the steel sector. Over the last month, Indian steel prices have softened due to sluggish domestic demand and stiff export competition. This has led to cost-cutting measures by mills, including the delay or deferral of raw material purchases like met coke. Indian steel prices weakened across the board last week, with the onset of the southwest monsoon curtailing demand from key sectors such as construction. In tandem, BigMint’s India Steel Composite Index dropped 0.6% w-o-w to 135.8 points on 23 May, the fourth consecutive week of decline. All the sub-indices fell w-o-w, with the steepest fall of 1% w-o-w recorded in the rebar segment. Overall, longs was down by 0.8%, while flats prices fell by 0.4% w-o-w.

Potential quota extension 

Unconfirmed reports indicate that the Indian government may extend quota restrictions on met coke imports through the entirety of 2025. If implemented, this measure would limit import volumes, thereby supporting domestic producers by curbing low-cost inflows. The extended quota regime could tighten supply for import-dependent consumers and provide price stability amid subdued demand and declining market rates.

China’s coke prices dip on oversupply, weak demand

China’s met coke market face pressure as steel mills cut prices by up to RMB 55/t ($8) due to weak demand and high inventories, totaling a RMB 100-110/t ($14-15) drop in May. Producers plan output cuts to stabilise the market amid oversupply.

Outlook

Met coke prices in India are likely to stay weak in the near term amid low demand and limited trade. However, a possible extension of import quotas in 2025 may support domestic prices by tightening supply.