India: BF rebar trade prices decline w-o-w; market awaits mills’ prices for Jun’25

• Early monsoon, labour crunch hits project segment trade
• IF rebar prices decline as inventories rise to over 12 days

Blast furnace (BF) rebar trade prices fell w-o-w across major Indian markets due to need-based buying activities. Uncertainty over mill pricing for June prompted buyers to delay purchases. As such, they chose to stay on the sidelines and adopt a cautious approach.

Trade-level BF rebar prices declined by INR 500/tonne (t) ($6/t) w-o-w to INR 55,500/t ($649/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint’s assessment on 30 May 2025. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%

In the projects segment, prices were under pressure at INR 54,000-54,500/t ($631-637/t) FOR Mumbai, as buyers remained cautious amid market uncertainty and weak sentiment. Early monsoon and labour shortages further slowed construction activity, impacting procurement decisions.

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF rebar trade prices fall w-o-w: IF rebar trade prices declined w-o-w due to weak demand. Monsoon-affected regions saw slower sales, prompting manufacturers to reduce list prices and offer discounts. This led to inventories rising above 12 days compared to last week’s 10-12 days. In Mumbai, prices plunged by INR 1,000/t to INR 46,800/t exw on 30 May 2025.

The BF-IF rebar price gap stood at around INR 8,500-9,000/t ($99-105/t) in Mumbai, where IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share.

2. Raw material prices range-bound w-o-w: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index remained stable w-o-w at INR 5,100/t ($60/t) on 23 May 2025. Iron ore prices in Odisha remained under pressure following a lukewarm response to the recent Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auction. Participation was notably low, especially for iron ore fines, reflecting subdued demand from steel producers and sponge iron manufacturers, which further dampened overall market sentiment.

Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged down by $1/t w-o-w to $205/t CNF Paradip.

Outlook

Market participants expect prices to decline in the near term due to sluggish buying. They are awaiting mills’ price announcements for June, which are expected to come next week.