China’s crude steel production in April 2025 stood at 86.02 million tonnes (mnt), largely steady y-o-y, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Moreover, production decreased by 7% m-o-m from March.
Crude steel production in January-April 2025 remained more or less range-bound, inching up 0.4% y-o-y to 345.35 mnt against 343.67 mnt in the same period last year.
Factors affecting output
Steel market rebounds in China: China’s domestic steel market rebounded this week, supported by improved sentiment across the commodity sector and positive developments in global trade talks. These factors have eased worries about sluggish manufacturing and ongoing export challenges, lifting confidence in the domestic steel industry.
Increase in steel exports: China’s steel exports in April rose by 13.4% y-o-y to 10.462 million tonnes (mnt) as compared to 9.22 mnt in April 2024. This increase in exports can be attributed to subdued domestic demand during the Qingming holidays and competitive Chinese export offers which boosted overseas sales.
Chinese BF steel mills report profits: On 15 May, about 59.3% of the 247 sampled BF steel mills under its regular tracking had achieved profits on finished steel sales during the 8-15 May, recording the highest number responding positively since mid-November 2024, according to Mysteel’s survey. This profitability was mainly attributed to the growth in finished steel prices amid the positive market sentiment.
Outlook
Recent progress in trade talks has lifted sentiment in China’s export sector, potentially driving a short-term rise in shipments. A firmer yuan may keep Chinese steel export prices stable or slightly higher in the near term. However, seasonal demand slowdowns are expected to cap major price gains, leaving the longer-term outlook cautious.
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