India: BigMint’s coking coal index rises $8/t in recent deal amid supply constraints

• Mills look for alternatives amid higher Australian tags
• Buyers expect prices to decline amid lack of demand

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $214/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 15 May 2025, up sharply by $8/t from 30 April. The rise in prices could be attributed to supply tightness from Australia.

Around 25,000 t of prime coking coal from Goonyella were booked by an Indian mill recently at $214-215/t CFR for June shipment. However, higher offers led buyers to look at some other destinations for procurement, such as Canada.

A buyer informed BigMint, “Supplies remain tight from Australia, but the availability of Canadian material helped alleviate the situation a little bit. There are some Goonyella-only buyers, and they are mostly holding purchases for the time being.”

Buyers remained hesitant and uncertain about the prices prevailing in the market. Therefore, they either held their positions or looked for alternatives. Additionally, they resisted accepting higher prices and strongly believed that, due to a lack of demand, tags would not sustain at these levels for much longer.

On the other hand, those hesitant to explore alternative sources may eventually proceed with deals if the current situation continues.

Meanwhile, India’s coking coal imports rose 6% to 5.0 million tonnes (mnt) in April 2025 from 4.7 mnt in March, according to BigMint data. The increase was supported by higher shipments from key suppliers such as Australia and Mozambique, though volumes from the US and Russia saw a slight decline.

Rationale

• BigMint’s coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, bids, and indicative prices. One deal was recorded during the publishing window. Hence, this category was not considered for index computation and given a weightage of 50%.
•  Seven (07) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. Out of these, five (05) were considered for price calculation and given 50% weightage.

Factors impacting imported coking coal prices

Australian coking coal prices range-bound: Australian PHCC prices remained range-bound w-o-w at $191/t FOB Australia. Prices were firm amid supply constraints.

China cuts met coke prices: Northern Chinese steelmakers cut metallurgical coke prices for the first time in a month on 13 May. The reduction comes amid weakening demand and a fall in coal input costs. Mills also rejected met coke producers’ calls for another price increase, given that steel demand is expected to dip in the monsoon.