China’s steel exports for April 2025 increased by 13.4% y-o-y to 10.462 million tonnes (mnt) as compared to 9.22 mnt in April 2024, as per General Administration of Customs. In January-April 2025, exports stood at 37.891 mnt, up by 8.2% y-o-y against 35 mnt in the same period a year ago. M-o-m, export volumes remained rangebound.
Factors driving China’s steel exports
Slow domestic market sentiment due to Qingming holidays: China’s domestic steel market sentiment remained subdued during the Qingming Festival, with market activities slowing down from 4-6 April due to the holiday. Construction slowdowns significantly impacted steel consumption, leading to cautious market sentiment. As a result, Chinese steel mills prioritised exports amid weak domestic demand, shifting focus to offset sluggishness in the property sector.
Lucrative offers against other exporting nations: Imported HRC offers to Middle East (ME) from China were heard at around $485/t CFR UAE in April, dropping by $10/t CFR against $495/t CFR UAE in March. Some deals were heard reported from China and Japan to the ME, while Indian offers were on hold due to competitive offers.
Meanwhile, China’s HRC FOB export offers remained very competitive to $459/t FOB in April. While, Japanese HRC offers were at $463/t FOB, in contrast, India’s HRC FOB offers were on hold. Cheaper export offers from China compared to other exporting origins resulted in higher export volumes in China.
Outlook
China’s steel exports are likely to remain strong in the short term, driven by sluggish domestic demand and competitive pricing, with the struggling real estate sector pushing mills to prioritise exports. However, the imposition of anti-dumping duties by countries like Vietnam could potentially curb China’s export growth, altering the competitive landscape.
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