- Market expected to pick up after May Day holiday
- Suppliers remain firm while mills stay on the sidelines
The Turkish deep-sea imported scrap market witnessed slow activities with fresh offers edging up by $5/tonne (t) w-o-w after touching a three-year low. Seller interest remained limited as there are few active buyers among the mills right now. However, the strong exchange rate is helping to keep prices from falling further, and at the same time, the inflow of scrap is gradually slowing down, which could tighten supply.
BigMint’s price assessments
- US-origin HMS 80:20 bulk scrap stood at $330/t CFR Turkiye, up $5/t w-o-w.
- Bulk HMS 80:20 from the US East Coast was at $308/t FOB, up $4/t w-o-w.
The Turkish scrap-to-rebar spread stood at $215-220/t, as export offers for the latter dropped w-o-w to $540-550/t FOB.
Market comments
HMS collection costs were reported at EUR 240-245/t ($271-277/t) delivered to docks. However, some recyclers were heard attempting–unsuccessfully–to push purchase prices down to EUR 235/t ($266/t) delivered.
A Turkish mill source noted that recyclers purchasing material at EUR 240-245/t ($271-277/t) while claiming the market had bottomed would need to begin exporting soon to sustain further collections and reduce average inventory costs before their yards reached capacity and added pressure on the selling side.
Indicative offers for US-Baltic-origin HMS 80:20 were largely heard in the range of $327-334/t CFR. Sellers were reportedly targeting a minimum of $335-340/t CFR for US-origin cargo, while EU-origin HMS was being offered at around $330/t CFR.
A market insider noted that a US-origin supplier was offering material at $340/t, while most others have withdrawn their offers altogether, refraining from supplying cargo to Turkish mills amid uncertain market conditions.
Another market participant observed that, “The market may have already reached its bottom, but Turkish mills still appear to be pushing for further price drops. Sellers, however, are holding firm-particularly on EU-origin cargo-setting targets no lower than $325/t CFR.”
Despite ongoing discussions around excess supply for May shipments and a lack of restocking urgency from mills, recyclers have kept offers firm, opting to postpone new bookings in the hope of a price recovery.
Recent deals
- France-origin 15,000 t of HMS 80:20 at $323/t were sold to an East Marmara mill.
- US-origin HMS 80:20 at $330/t went to an East Marmara mill.
- Russia-origin HMS 80:20, offered at $327/t, was sold to an Aegean mill.
Domestic market scenario
Turkiye has seen a rise in semi-finished steel imports, reducing its dependency on scrap. This trend, combined with falling scrap prices, has driven down rebar sales prices, intensifying pressure on mill margins, especially in the domestic market, which constitutes the bulk of sales.
Turkish domestic rebar prices were last assessed at $535-540/t FOB, down sharply from $560-565/t at the start of the month.
Outlook
Near-term prices are likely to stay stable or inch up, as Turkish mills aim to hold current rebar levels. With buyers and sellers cautious, the market remains in wait-and-watch mode, awaiting a fresh deal to set direction. Mills have paused purchases, with activity expected to pick up post the 1 May holiday.
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