- Moderate trade activity seen due to lack of buyers
- Around 300,000 t of export deals heard this week
The Indian iron ore fines export market witnessed a subdued performance over the past week, with prices remaining largely stable amid weak buying interest and limited trading activity. Market sources reported that only a few trades were concluded as most buyers stayed on the sidelines, citing lack of clarity on price trends and broader market uncertainties.
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index inched up by $0.5/t w-o-w to $60.5/t FOB east coast, India, on 24 April 2025. Trade activity in the Indian Ocean remained thin, but a few exporters received inquiries. Export deals for around 175,000 t were recorded in this publishing window. Another 120,000 t of fines export deals were heard but are yet to be confirmed by the parties concerned.
A trader commented: ” The market is very quiet right now. We received a few inquiries, but buyers are hesitant to commit even at lower prices.”
The Fe 57% iron ore fines discount was assessed at around 22-24% for Indian material. However, many exporters voiced concerns that with higher domestic prices prevailing, the current export levels are not viable. An exporter informed, “Domestic realisation is far better than export. Selling at current FOB levels makes no sense as the margin is not viable.”
Exporters have identified $75/t CFR China as the current cut-off level for profitability. Any price below this threshold leaves little to no margin, significantly reducing spot trade activity.
Adding to the sluggish market sentiment, participants are waiting for more clarity on export pricing and broader global cues. There is cautious optimism that prices may improve in the near term if the US-China trade tensions ease. An Odisha-based iron ore exporter mentioned, “We are hopeful that once the geopolitical tensions subside, demand from China will improve.”
Chinese spot prices rise: Benchmark iron ore fines in China increased by $2/t w-o-w to $101/t CFR on 23 April. This increase was driven by improved market sentiment following positive signals emanating from potential reductions in US-China trade tariffs, boosting the overall outlook. Seaborne trade activity remained limited; however, interest in low- and mid-grade fines improved as market confidence strengthened.
DCE iron ore futures up: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for September 2025 contract increased by RMB 13/t ($1.5/t) w-o-w to RMB 720/t ($98/t) on 24 April.
Rationale
- Two (2) deals for Fe 57% were reported during this publishing window, and both were considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-one (21) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and Nineteen (19) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports dropped by 0.8 million tonnes (mnt) w-o-w to 133.8 mnt on 24 April, according to data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, the market may see near-term volatility until external factors like US-China tariff tensions subside and Chinese demand trends become clearer.
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