India: BigMint’s coking coal index recovers by $15/t on global supply constraints

• Australian PHCC tags rebound from 4-year low
• China’s met coke prices rise for 1st time since Oct

BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $203/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 15 April 2025, up by $15/t from $188/t on 31 March. The price rise was a result of higher offers due to limited supplies from Australia, especially in the spot market.

“At the moment, there are not many offers from Australia for PHCC cargoes. However, price indications are at around $205/t CFR India, though we have not heard about any deals yet,” highlighted a trader.

Rationale

BigMint’s coking coal index is derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, bids, and indicative prices. No deals were recorded during the publishing window. Hence, this category was not considered for index computation and given a weightage of 0%.

Eight (8) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard. All of these were considered for price calculation and given 100% weightage.

Factors impacting imported coking coal prices

Australian coking coal prices recover after hitting 4-year low: Australian PHCC prices have recovered sharply after hitting a four-year low of $166/t FOB in March 2025. As of mid-April, prices stood at $182/t FOB Australia. Prices surged due to supply concerns following accidents at Australia’s two leading mines – Moranbah North and Appin – last week.

China sees 1st round of met coke price hikes since Oct: China’s met coke market saw its first price hike of RMB 50-55/t after 11 rounds of price cuts seen since late-October, but hopes for a second rise are dimming. Despite a slight demand recovery and low inventories, cautious sentiment, weak support from the coking coal market, and escalating US-China trade tensions dulled trade momentum. Steel mills were hesitant about purchasing material, which kept market outlook uncertain amid fragile economic and geopolitical signals.

India’s coking coal imports up m-o-m in Mar’25: India’s coking coal imports stood at 4.9 mnt in March 2025, up 23% from 4.0 mnt in February, as per provisional data from BigMint.