India: Primary mills hike rebar prices by up to INR 3,000/t ($35/t) for early Apr’25

• Inventories drop 30% m-o-m amid 20% rise in sales
• IF rebar prices increase m-o-m as buying improves

Indian primary mills raised rebar list prices by up to INR 3,000/tonne (t) ($35/t) for early-April 2025 deliveries compared to end-March 2025 levels, sources informed BigMint. Post revision, list prices hovered at around INR 55,500-57,000/t ($650-668/t) on a landed basis. It should be noted that mills offered discounts/rebates in the previous month.

Primary mills reported a 20% rise in domestic rebar sales in March 2025, leading to a 30% m-o-m decline in rebar inventories at mills as of early April 2025.

Update on projects

• L&T’s power transmission and distribution vertical secured new orders in India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman, including substations, transmission lines, and grid infrastructure projects, reinforcing its expertise and customer trust globally.
• Kalpataru Projects International Limited (KPIL) has secured new orders worth approximately INR 621 crore, including projects in the buildings and factories (B&F) and railway businesses in India.
• NCC secured additional orders worth INR 5,773 crore (excluding GST) in March 2025, including INR 2,686 crore for transportation, INR 2,139 crore for buildings, and INR 948 crore for water and environment, further strengthening its project portfolio.
• KEC International Ltd. secured INR 1,236 crore in new orders across businesses. Projects include T&D in India and the Middle East, a residential project in Western India, a TCAS order under ‘Kavach,’ and cable supply contracts.

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF rebar prices rise m-o-m: Induction furnace (IF) rebar trade prices increased m-o-m across major markets amid improved buying activities. Finished steel tags were also supported by an uptick in semi-finished steel prices and positive market sentiments. Inventory idling time stood at 7-8 days, with no selling pressure. As per BigMint’s assessment, IF rebar prices increased m-o-m by INR 1,500/t ($18/t) to a monthly average of INR 49,400/t ($579/t) exw-Mumbai in March 2025.

The BF-IF rebar price gap increased to INR 6,500-7,000/t ($76-82/t) in Mumbai, where IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share.

2. Property registrations rise in FY’25: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market, increased 8% y-o-y to 1.43 lakh units in FY’25 as against 1.32 lakh units in the year-ago period, as per data released by Knight Frank India. On a m-o-m basis, registrations increased 34% to 15,482 units in March 2025 compared with 11,541 units in February 2025.

Additionally, property registrations climbed up by 9% y-o-y to 15,482 units in March from 14,145 units in the same period last year.

3. Iron ore prices up, coking coal stable w-o-w: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index edged up w-o-w by INR 100/t ($1/t) to INR 5,200/t ($/t) on 29 March 2025. Iron ore prices in Odisha remained largely steady, though trading slowed down due to the financial year-end. Market participants adopted a cautious approach following the expiration of environmental clearance (ECs) for major miners, awaiting fresh ECs before booking material for April.

Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices were stable w-o-w at $184/t CNF Paradip.

Outlook
Trade prices are likely to remain steady in near term following the price increase by mills and material shortages due to the shutdown of a leading mill.