- Prices may drop with arrival of post-Holi cargo
- Coal stocks at Indian power plants inch up
The Indonesian thermal coal market is experiencing notable price volatility, driven by a combination of factors like supply disruptions and evolving demand patterns.
Domestic coal price trends
“In the Navlakhi coal market, prices of lower grades rose briefly due to a stock shortage. However, with 4-5 vessels expected to arrive after the Holi festival, prices are expected to decrease. At Kandla, lower-grade coal prices saw a slight uptick with the arrival of 3-4 vessels, though these are expected to stabilise in the near term,” highlighted a source.
Currently, 5000 GAR at Kandla remains steady at INR 7,800/tonne (t), while 3400 GAR at Navlakhi is unchanged at INR 4,950/t. The price of 4200 GAR rose by INR 150/t at Kandla to INR 6,200/t, and by INR 200/t at Vizag to INR 6,100/t, mainly due to supply shortages at key ports.
As the country heads into the restocking needs for summer, demand for thermal coal is expected to increase. This restocking effort, along with a shift in demand patterns, may exert upward pressure on prices in the short term. Additionally, industries are shifting away from ceramic-grade coal in favour of lignite, a more affordable domestic alternative, impacting ceramic coal price trends.
Coal stock levels at Indian power plants inch up
As of 27 March, Indian power plants held 56.87 mnt of coal, sufficient to last approximately 19 days. Inventory has inched up against 19 March when it was recorded at 55.85 mnt. However, concerns have arisen regarding the critical stock levels at some plants. Notably, 12 domestic and 5 imported coal plants, and 4 washery reject plants are nearing critical stock thresholds, posing potential risks to power supply continuity.
Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports
In week 12 of CY’25, thermal coal inventories at Indian ports decreased by 0.9% w-o-w to 11.72 million tonnes (mnt) from 11.83 mnt in the previous week, according to BigMint data. While the decline was marginal, shifts at key ports have raised concern.
Indonesian coal price updates
Indonesian coal prices have seen a slight w-o-w decreases. The price of high-calorific value (CV) 5800 GAR coal dropped by $1 to $84.13/t, while mid-CV 4200 GAR also decreased by $0.02 to $49.66/t. Conversely, low-CV 3400 GAR coal saw a modest increase of $0.47, reaching $32.83/t.
With the ongoing Ramadan holidays in Indonesia, coal offers from the region are expected to reduce over the next 7-10 days. This temporary disruption is likely to inject some short-term volatility into the international coal supply system, further influencing price fluctuations in the global market.
Conclusion
As both global and domestic dynamics continue to evolve, the coal market remains in a state of flux. Factors such as stock levels, and shifting demand trends will play a central role in shaping price movements and overall market stability in the coming weeks.
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