India: HRC export index remains stable w-o-w, offers to EU resume

• Indian mills stop actively offering to Middle East
• India exempted from EC’s provisional AD duties

BigMint’s India hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE1006) export index (Middle East and Vietnam) remained unchanged w-o-w at $495/tonne (t) FOB. Notably, Indian mills did not actively offer HRCs to the Middle East amid competitive Chinese prices and sluggish market activities. However, Indian HRC offers to the EU resumed after India was exempted from the provisional anti-dumping duties proposed by the European Commission (EC) following its preliminary investigation. Additionally, Vietnamese buyers opted for domestic material despite rising mill prices.

Market updates

1. ME’s imported HRC offers show mixed trends: Chinese HRC export offers to the Middle East dropped by $10/t w-o-w, with offers hovering at around $490-500/t CFR UAE, against $500-515/t last week. Despite this price reduction, trade activity in the region remained slow due to ongoing festivities.

Meanwhile, Indian HRC export offers to the UAE remained stable at $515/t CFR UAE.

2. India’s HRC export offers to EU resume: Indian HRC export offers to the EU resumed, with offers at $610-615/t CFR Antwerp following the preliminary findings of the anti-dumping investigations. The EC has proposed provisional duties of 6.9-33% for Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam, while India is exempt due to no dumping found during the investigation period. The EC has also notified the WTO of adjustments to steel safeguard measures, effective 1 April 2025, with the provisional duties to be imposed from 7 April 2025.

3. China’s HRC offers to Vietnam remain flat: Chinese HRC (SAE1006) export offers to Vietnam remained flat w-o-w; indicative offers stood at $485-490/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). Vietnamese buyers preferred domestic HRCs despite an uptrend in mills’ prices.

HRC futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) displayed a mixed trend. On d-o-d basis, futures edged down by RMB 27/t ($4/t), to RMB 3,373/t ($467/t) from RMB 3,400/t ($470/t). However, on a w-o-w basis, futures increased by RMB 31/t ($4/t) compared to the previous week’s RMB 3,342/t ($462/t).

Outlook

India’s steel export outlook shows mixed trends, with both challenges and opportunities emerging. The EU’s tightened import quotas and anti-dumping duties on some countries may eventually benefit India, but competitive Chinese offers in the Middle East market continue to pose a challenge.