Global steel scrap generation to increase 40% by 2050

• China’s scrap generation to rise 23.4% to 337 mnt by 2050
• Developed nations’ scrap generation to drop 8.2% to 213 mnt

Japan Metal Daily: Global steel scrap generation is expected to reach 904 million tonnes (mnt) by 2050, marking a 41% increase (263 mnt) from 2020 levels, according to the Japan Iron Source Association. The rise will be fueled by a significant increase in scrap availability from emerging economies, alongside growth in China.

In contrast, developed countries are projected to experience a moderate decline in scrap generation. The forecast, which has been published annually since 2021, is based on the “steel circulation rate”–a key metric reflecting the ratio of steel scrap generation to apparent steel consumption.

The latest projections, featured in the Global Supply and Demand Trends for Steel Scrap (2025 edition), indicate that global scrap supply will be influenced by factors such as steel replacement cycles and improved scrap collection systems, particularly as the world moves toward decarbonisation.

While short-term scrap consumption will fluctuate with steel demand, long-term trends will depend on the level of steel stock accumulation and advancements in recycling infrastructure across different regions.

Regional breakdown and forecast assumptions

By 2050, China’s steel scrap generation is projected to reach 337 mnt, reflecting a 23.4% rise (64 mnt) from 2020. Emerging economies (excluding China) will see a substantial surge to 354 mnt, an increase of approximately 2.6 times (218 mnt). Meanwhile, developed nations are expected to generate 213 mnt, marking an 8.2% decline (-19 mnt).

These projections are based on assumptions regarding apparent steel consumption trends: a 1% annual decline in China, 0.3% in developed countries, and 1.5% in emerging economies. These estimates consider demographic shifts, capital investment growth, and per capita steel consumption.

The steel circulation rate is forecast to increase annually by 0.8% in China and 0.6% in emerging economies, while remaining stable in developed countries.

In China, a declining rate of self-generated steel scrap–linked to reduced steel production–has contributed to recent downward adjustments in its circulation rate. In contrast, the forecast for emerging economies has been revised upward, with the steel circulation rate now expected to grow by 0.6% annually, up from the previous estimate of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the steel consumption forecast for developed nations has been adjusted downward from zero growth to a 0.3% annual decline.

Adjustments to previous forecasts

Due to these revised assumptions, the global scrap generation forecast for 2050 has been reduced by 29 mnt from the previous estimate of 933 mnt. China’s forecast has been revised downward by 24 mnt and developed countries’ by 31 mnt. However, projections for emerging economies have been revised upward by 26 mnt, highlighting their growing role in global scrap supply.

These findings emphasize the increasing contribution of emerging markets to future scrap generation, while steel scrap availability in traditional steel-producing regions is expected to decline.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.