India: Tier 1 mills hike rebar list prices by up to INR 2,000/t ($23/t) for early-Mar’25

• BF rebar inventories decline by 6% m-o-m
• IF tags rise in Feb on improved bookings

Indian Tier 1 mills raised rebar list prices by up to INR 2,000/tonne (t) ($23/t) for early-March 2025 deliveries compared to end-February 2025 levels, sources informed BigMint. Post revision, list prices hovered at around INR 53,000-54,000/t ($609-620/t) on a landed basis. It should be noted that mills offered discounts/rebates in the previous month.

Notably, rebar inventories with mills declined by around 6% m-o-m in early-March 2025.

Update on projects

• The power transmission and distribution (PT&D) vertical of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) secured new orders in India, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi, including transmission lines, GIS substations, and grid stations. These projects will help enhance renewable energy integration and develop efficient global power transmission infrastructure.
• Nagarjuna Construction Company (NCC) Limited secured an order worth INR 218.82 crore (excluding GST) in February 2025 for its transportation division. The order, awarded by a state government, does not include any internal contracts.
• L&T’s Buildings & Factories (B&F) vertical secured major orders to construct residential towers in Mumbai, Bangalore, and Chennai for a reputed developer. The projects include high-rise luxury towers with stringent timelines, along with add-on orders for ongoing developments.
• Kalpataru Projects International Limited (KPIL) and its subsidiaries secured INR 2,306 crore in new orders, including Transmission & Distribution (T&D) projects in overseas markets and building projects in India, strengthening its presence across key infrastructure sectors.

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF rebar prices rise m-o-m: IF rebar trade prices rose m-o-m across markets amid moderate demand and improved bookings. Manufacturers increased prices but offered trade discounts due to buyer resistance. Inventory idling time reduced to 10-12 days. Sponge iron and billet prices also increased m-o-m. As per BigMint, IF rebar prices rose by INR 800/t ($9/t) m-o-m to a monthly average of INR 47,900/t ($550/t) exw-Mumbai in February 2025.

The price gap between BF-IF rebars narrowed to around INR 4,000-4,500/t ($46-52/t) in the Mumbai market. Notably, IF rebars command a 65-70% share of the market.

2. Property registrations in February: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market, dropped by 6% m-o-m to 11,541 units in February 2025 as against 12,249 units a month ago, as per data released by Knight Frank India. On a y-o-y basis, property registrations edged down by 2% compared with 11,742 units in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, property registrations increased 8% y-o-y to 1.27 lakh units in 11MFY’25 as against 1.17 lakh units in the same period in the preceding year.

3. Raw material prices range-bound: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index inched up by INR 50/t ($0.57/t) w-o-w to INR 5,050/t ($58/t) on 1 March. Iron ore prices in Odisha remained steady amid tight supply, as several miners have reached their environmental clearance (EC) extraction limits. Pending advance bookings for dispatches further limited material availability.

Additionally, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices edged down by $1/t w-o-w to $202/t CNF Paradip.

Outlook
Trade-level BF-rebar prices are likely to show uptrend in short term amid the price hike by mills and ongoing material shortages across major markets.