- Chinese export offers to ME remain firm w-o-w
- Indian mills continue to hold back offers to EU
BigMint’s India hot-rolled coil (HRC) (SAE 1006) export index (for the Middle East and Vietnam) remained stable w-o-w at around $505/t FOB east coast India. The index was stable amid slow trade activities ahead of the holy month of Ramadan in the Middle East (ME).
Moreover, Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has imposed anti-dumping duties on HRC imports from China but exempted India from these anti-dumping duties. However, Indian mills are not actively offering to Vietnam. “Before exporting HRCs to Vietnam, Indian mills want to match the prices they receive in Vietnam with the ones they receive in the domestic market. This is to ensure that they do not lose out on revenue by selling at a lower price in Vietnam compared to India,” indicated a source.
“Vietnam’s HRC market is experiencing low demand and high supply in the domestic market,” another source noted.
Furthermore, HRC export offers to the European Union (EU) remained muted, with market participants awaiting the results of the anti-dumping investigation, along with new import quota details.
Market updates
1. ME’s imported HRC offers remain stable: Chinese HRC export offers to the Middle East remained stable w-o-w, with offers hovering at around $495/t CFR UAE. Trading activity was slow ahead of Ramadan, with buyers taking a cautious approach, awaiting potential price drops. A reliable source said, “China is trying to maintain offers, but buyers are waiting for corrections due to anti-dumping duties and tariff developments.”
Notably, HRC futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) declined. On a d-o-d basis, futures dropped by RMB 37/t ($5/t) to RMB 3,392/t ($467/t) today compared to RMB 3,429/t ($472/t). Moreover, futures decreased by RMB 27/t ($4/t) w-o-w from RMB 3,419/t ($471/t) last week.
Indian HRC export offers to the ME also remained largely stable w-o-w at $530/t CFR UAE, despite sluggish trade activities.
2. Indian mills not actively offering to EU: Indian mills are not actively offering HRCs in the EU market. Market participants are awaiting the results of the anti-dumping investigation. An EU-based market participant noted, “Anti-dumping results may be announced in March 2025, along with new import quota details.”
Meanwhile, European HRC prices continued their upward trajectory, driven by limited import availability and robust restocking demand. The ongoing EU steel safeguard review has led buyers to prefer domestic suppliers, contributing to the price increase.
3. China’s HRC offers to Vietnam remain steady: Chinese HRC (SAE1006) export offers to Vietnam remained steady w-o-w following the imposition of anti-dumping duties on China, with indicative offers hovering at around $485-$490/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC).
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade imposed anti-dumping duties of 19.38-27.83% on HRC imports from China to protect its domestic steel industry. The duties will apply to specific HRC products and will take effect on 7 March 2025 for 120 days. Notably, HRC imports from India are exempt due to their negligible market share.
Furthermore, the Indian government has renewed the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) licence of Vietnamese steel major Hoa Phat Group, allowing the company to export HRCs to India until 5 February 2026. The licence covers specific HRC grades with a thickness of 1.50-12.0 mm and a width of 900-1,524 mm.
Outlook
India’s HRC export offers are expected to show mixed trends, amid subdued Middle Eastern demand ahead of the holy month of Ramadan and competitive Chinese pricing, which has created a challenging environment. However, Vietnam’s market, influenced by anti-dumping duties on Chinese products and India’s renewed BIS licences, can emerge as an export opportunity.
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