India’s manganese ore imports hit 5-month high in Jan’25 – BigMint data

Morning Brief: India’s imports of manganese ore of different grades were recorded at 0.76 million tonnes (mnt) in January 2025 as against 0.51 mnt in December, a sharp increase of 50% m-o-m. Imported ore volumes hit a five-month high in January: imports had last surpassed these levels in August 2024 when total shipments had been recorded at 0.8 mnt.

As per BigMint data, at 5.75 mnt, India’s manganese ore imports till January of FY’25 mnt have already crossed 5.47 mnt recorded in entire 2024.

Mid-grade manganese ore (Mn 35-46% and Mn 25-35%) witnessed the highest imports of around 0.74 mnt in January, while high-grade ore (Mn 46% and above) imports were marginal at just 0.03 mnt.

South Africa and Gabon were the only two exporters to India in January, with shipments of 0.43 mnt and 0.33 mnt, respectively. These two countries were the leading exporters till January of FY’25, with South African shipments at around 3.47 mnt and Gabonese exports assessed at 1.93 mnt.

Factors behind spike in imports

1. Demand recovery from manganese alloys producers: India’s manganese alloys production hit a seven-month high in January, reaching 0.42 mnt, the highest since 0.47 mnt in August last. This has boosted demand for manganese ore, with the last quarter of a fiscal generally considered the peak demand season.

2. Manganese alloys exports gain momentum: India’s exports of manganese alloys rose to 0.18 mnt in January as against 0.15 mnt in December. Exports picked up after markets resumed trade activities after China’s New Year holidays. This naturally boosted domestic production and demand for ore.

3. Expected hike in imported manganese ore prices: Indian importers were expecting a hike in global manganese ore prices because of which they had booked in advance during October-November when prices were lower. Global manganese ore suppliers are restricting supply to Indian smelters, thereby putting pressure on the domestic market. Some miners have prioritised increasing supplies to China, resulting in constrained availability of ore for Indian producers. So, limited supply has supported prices of imported manganese ore.

The European Commission has initiated a safeguard investigation into imports of manganese- and silicon-based alloying elements. This decision follows a detailed analysis of market conditions, which suggests that these imports may be causing or threatening to cause serious harm to EU producers.

India’s total manganese alloy exports in FY’24 were 1.7 mnt, as per data with BigMint. Exports account for nearly 40% of India’s manganese alloys production, which was recorded at around 4 mnt in FY’24.

While silico manganese exports were 1.1 mnt, ferro manganese shipments stood at around 0.65 mnt. Exports to Europe were around 0.28 mnt, 16% of the total. European steel mills, which rely on these imports, may face significant challenges in sourcing manganese alloys from alternative markets, potentially affecting their production capabilities. But these safeguard measures take time to be implemented.

Domestic manganese ore production in India has also picked up but still way short of demand. Production was recorded at 0.35 mnt in January.

However, global miners have reported sharp declines in Q4 production. While major miner Eramet has reported a 40% drop in production, South Africa’s Jupiter Mines has witnessed a 38% contraction in its ore output during the quarter. Therefore, prices of imported ore are expected to remain firm, which is a cause for concern for Indian buyers already impacted by a depreciating currency.

In such a situation, it can be expected that domestic prices of manganese alloys will remain firm in the short term.