India: HRC export offers remain stable w-o-w despite competitive Chinese prices

• India’s bulk HRC exports plunge 72% y-o-y in Jan’25
• Chinese HRC export offers to ME drop by $5/t w-o-w

BigMint’s India hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE1006) export index for the Middle East (ME) and Vietnam remained stable w-o-w. However, exports to Europe continued to face headwinds due to the ongoing anti-dumping investigations. Furthermore, competitive Chinese prices following the Lunar New Year holidays, along with volatile Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) HRC futures, kept trading activities sluggish for Indian mills in the ME market.

Notably, India’s bulk HRC export volumes declined by 72% y-o-y in January 2025 to 111,838 tonnes (t) compared to 399,976 t in January 2024. Additionally, volumes dropped by 56% m-o-m compared to 254,930 t in December 2024.

Market updates

1. HRC offers to ME show mixed trends w-o-w: Chinese HRC export offers to the Middle East dropped by $5/t following the Lunar New Year holidays, to $500-505/t CFR UAE compared to around $505/t before the holidays. Meanwhile, Chinese SHFE HRC futures experienced a downtrend after the holidays. On a d-o-d basis, SHFE HRC futures edged down by RMB 27/t ($4/t) to RMB 3,410/t ($467/t), against RMB 3,437/t ($470/t) the previous day. W-o-w, futures inched down by RMB 20/t ($3/t) from RMB 3,430/t ($469/t) on 5 February 2025.

However, Indian HRC export offers to ME remained range-bound w-o-w at around $525-530/t CFR UAE, despite competitive Chinese offers.

2. HRC exports to Europe remain slow: The anti-dumping investigations into Indian HRCs continued to dampen exports to Europe, with S275, 3 mm thickness quotes stuck at $590-595/t CFR Antwerp ($540-545/t FOB, east coast India). “Market activities may pick up following the results of the anti-dumping investigations, expected to be announced in mid-March,” informed a source.

Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal – the top steel producer in Europe – lifted HRC prices by around EUR 30/t ($31/t) for April 2025 deliveries. Post revision, effective prices were at EUR 660/t ($685/t) exw. This price hike comes amid import restrictions and the ongoing review of EU steel safeguard measures, which have been driving European buyers towards domestic suppliers.

3. China’s HRC offers to Vietnam: China’s HRC (SAE1006) export offers to Vietnam remained range-bound post-holidays, with offers hovering at around $480-490/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City. Meanwhile, Hoa Phat Group, a Vietnamese steel major, cut its monthly HRC (SAE1006, non-skin-passed) prices by around $13/t for April-May 2025 shipments. Prices stood at approximately $506/t or VND 12,840,000/t for the southern region, excluding VAT.

Outlook:

The Indian HRC export market is expected to remain sluggish in the near term. Indian mills have increased their domestic prices and are more focused on the domestic segment, owing to competitive Chinese offers in the global market. Additionally, the ongoing anti-dumping investigations will continue to dampen exports to Europe.