- Tight supply, firm Turkish demand push up prices
- Demand from Bangladesh, Vietnam remains sluggish
US ferrous scrap export offers climbed by around $6/t w-o-w as the increase aligned with a sharp rise in US deep-sea scrap offers for Turkiye.
US exporters are reportedly targeting over $360/t CFR for HMS (80:20) amid expectations of a $30-40/t increase in US ferrous scrap prices in February 2025. Tight supply, driven by cold weather and reduced inflows, is pushing prices higher. Despite weak export steel markets and subdued demand for finished steel, US mills remain active in purchasing scrap, with the supply-driven market prompting mills to restock to sustain production levels.
FOB assessments (US East Coast, bulk)
- Shredded scrap rose by $6/t w-o-w to $354/t.
- HMS (80:20) increased by $6/t w-o-w to $334/t.
CFR assessments (bulk)
- HMS (80:20) was assessed at $354/t CFR Turkiye, up $6/t w-o-w.
- HMS (80:20) stood at $340/t CFR Vietnam, stable w-o-w.
- HMS (80:20) was at $360/t CFR Chattogram, up $1/t w-o-w.
Updates on key importers
Turkiye: Demand for imported scrap in Turkiye remained firm, driven by strong deal activity and tightening supply. Turkish deep-sea scrap prices rose by $7/t w-o-w, with US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap reaching $355/t CFR, up $12/t.
Workable prices for US-/Baltic-origin HMS (80:20) ranged from $349-354/t CFR, with offers at $360/t CFR, though most deals closed at $350/t CFR. A major US trader reported US HMS (80:20) at $355-356/t CFR Turkiye.
Improved Turkish rebar demand and tight scrap supply continue to support price gains, with rebar prices rising $15-20/t w-o-w to $570-575/t FOB Turkiye. Market activity was initially slow as participants monitored US-China trade tensions, but in the latter half of the week, multiple deals were reported from the Baltic, Europe, and the US.
Bangladesh: Demand for US-origin scrap in Bangladesh remains sluggish, with bulk trade activity dominated by major players in Chattogram. While global scrap prices are rising due to a supply crunch, Bangladeshi buyers remain cautious amid weak inquiries.
Rebar demand surged in mid-January, pushing prices up by BDT 4,000-5,000/t ($33-41), but softened after 15 days due to price resistance.
With Ramadan approaching, short-term demand may improve, but overall market sentiment remains cautious and price movements will depend on buyer participation.
Vietnam: Demand for US-origin scrap in Vietnam remained muted as buyers stayed inactive during the Tet holidays. Weak demand and sufficient inventories kept mills on the sidelines, leading to a stable market. Deep-sea bulk US-origin HMS (80:20) held steady at $340/t CFR w-o-w, with the post-holiday demand outlook remaining uncertain.
Rising US-China trade tensions
The US imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, prompting China to retaliate with tariffs on US coal, LNG, and crude oil. While both sides have some left room for negotiation, risks remain. Consumers may face higher prices, especially on electronic items. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are on hold but could resume.
Outlook:
US ferrous scrap prices are likely to remain firm, supported by tight supply and strong Turkish demand. Bangladesh may see short-term buying ahead of Ramadan, while Vietnam’s market remains uncertain post-Tet. Global scrap prices will hinge on buyer activity and US-China trade trends, with buying interest expected to pick up in the coming days.
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