Australia: Coking coal exports drop over 20% m-o-m in Jan’25

• Exports to India dropped by 23%
• Australian coking coal prices dropped m-o-m

Australia’s coking coal exports saw a sharp decline in January 2025, with total shipments dropping by 23% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 11.33 million tonnes (mnt), compared to 14.73 mnt in December 2024, according to data from BigMint. Despite the m-o-m dip, exports showed a 5% y-o-y increase from 10.8 mnt in January 2024, highlighting a modest recovery compared to the previous year.

Limited allocations from major miners during the year-end seem to have resulted in lower export shipments last month.

Decline in shipments to key markets

The decrease in exports was particularly notable to key markets such as India and China. Shipments to India fell by 23% m-o-m, dropping from 3.26 mnt in December to 2.52 mnt in January. Exports to China were hit even harder, plummeting by 53% from 1.8 mnt in December to 0.84 mnt in January. Meanwhile, shipments to Japan saw a significant decline of 47%, falling to 1.94 mnt from 3.63 mnt in December.

In contrast, South Korea emerged as a notable exception to the downturn, with exports rising by 25% m-o-m. Australian coking coal shipments to South Korea increased from 1.42 mnt in December 2024 to 1.78 mnt in January, signalling stronger demand from the country.

Port performance

Australia’s major coal terminals saw a decline in shipments in January, reflecting the downturn in exports. Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) saw shipments dropping 14% to 3.74 mnt, while shipments from Gladstone Port fell by 13% to 3.51 mnt. Hay Point Port saw a significant 41% decrease in exports to 2.13 mnt, and Abbot Point Port witnessed a 31% decline, with shipments falling to 1.26 mnt. Port Kembla handled 26% less cargo at 0.46 mnt, and Newcastle Port saw an 18% drop to 0.23 mnt.

Price trends

On the pricing front, Australian coking coal prices showed a slight drop in January. The average price fell by $7/t m-o-m to $193/t FOB, reflecting the overall slowdown in exports and market demand driven by the decline in steel prices.

Outlook

Despite the challenges in major markets, Australian coking coal exports witnessed overall growth y-o-y, signalling continued demand in global markets despite a few short-term setbacks.