BigMint’s India HRC (SAE 1006) export index (for the Middle East and Vietnam) remained stable w-o-w at $597/tonne (t) FOB east coast India. Export offers to the Middle East remained unchanged w-o-w, ranging from $630-635/t CFR. However, offers to Europe dropped amid sluggish domestic demand in the EU. In addition, China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a significant decline in prices following the Lunar New Year holidays.
Market updates:
1. Indian HRC export offers to EU decline: Indian HRC exports to Europe (S275, 3mm) declined by around $5/t w-o-w. Current offers are around $700-705/t CFR Antwerp ($650-655/t FOB east-coast India) against $705-710/t CFR Antwerp last week. Europe’s hot-rolled coil market is in a slump, with slow demand and prices hovering around EUR 700/t ex-works ($756/t). Importers are hesitant due to long lead times, readily available domestic supplies, and uncertainty over upcoming safeguard quota. Buyers are holding back, keeping trading sluggish in an already stagnant market. Also, Indian HRC export market has turned slow after exhaustion of quota for Q1.
2. Indian HRC exports to ME steady: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East held steady this week, staying within the range of $630-635/t CFR. Meanwhile, Chinese HRC prices remained range-bound ranging at $600-610/t CFR UAE. However, SHFE HRC futures declined on 20 February, falling from RMB 3,978/t ($553/t) before the Lunar New Year holidays to RMB 3,916/t ($544/t). Vietnamese HRC offers also saw a slight dip, settling at $630-635/t CFR UAE. Furthermore, “prices are currently stable, but the outlook remains uncertain”, says an ME based source.
3. Slow market activities in Vietnam post-holidays: Market participants in Vietnam have returned after Tet holidays. However, trade activities remained low amid lower domestic demand. Moreover, market participants are waiting for Formosa Ha Tinh (FHS) price revision. No firm offers reported from India recently, last heard offers were around $610-615/t CFR HCMC.
Outlook:
Global market sentiments are expected to remain weak as Chinese SHFE HRC prices dropped sharply post-holidays. Moreover, EU import offers are cheaper than domestic alternatives, but long lead times, shipping disruptions and import quotas may limit export trade activities from India.