Australian thermal coal exports dropped by 14% m-o-m to 17.05 million tonnes (mnt) in January 2024, as per BigMint’s vessel line-up data. Moreover, exports rose by 12% as compared to 15.27 mnt in January 2023.
The drop in exports was attributed to concerns over potential disruptions in coal shipping due to tropical cyclone Kirrily near the Australian coast. Ports like Hay Point, Abbot Point, and Gladstone experienced scheduling halts due to the cyclonic disturbance, contributing to the export decline.
Hay Point underwent scheduled maintenance from 8-15 January 2024, Gladstone from 15-18 January 2024, and Port Kemble had a 10-hour maintenance on 31 January 2024.
Following cyclone Kirrily, Australian coal-producing regions grappled with production challenges, characterised by transportation disruptions in Queensland and subdued demand. This led to the reselling of cargoes and disruptions in coal production across the country.
Country- wise exports
Australian thermal coal exports to Japan stood at 7.72 mnt in January 2024, rose by 7% m-o-m. The figure accounted for almost 45% of total exports.
China’s coal imports from Australia dropped by 32% m-o-m to 3.36 mnt in January 2024 as against 4.93 mnt in December 2023. Chinese demand remained subdued during last couple of months despite the approaching Lunar New Year holidays. Also, the winter temperature for the country is not expected to go down which will further impact the buying pattern of Chinese mills.
Exports to South Korea dropped 29% in the month under review, with shipments at 1.48 mnt. Exports to Taiwan totalled 1.20 mnt.
Exports to India dropped 25% during the month. Exports to India in January 2024 stood at 0.25 mnt as against 0.33 mnt in December 2023. Demand from India remained low amid expected price correction. Indian utilities are waiting to see price changes post which deals are expected to take place.
Port-wise exports
Exports from Newcastle dropped by 11% m-o-m at 13.08 mnt in January 2024 as against 14.72 mnt in December 2023. Shipments from Abbot Point stood at 1.29 mnt in January 2024 as against 1.44 mnt in December 2023.
Supplies from DBCT dropped 9% m-o-m to 1.08 mnt in January 2024 as against 1.18 mnt in December 2023. However, exports from Port Kemble surged 40% m-o-m to 0.33 mnt in January 2024 as against 0.23 mnt in December 2023.
Outlook
It is expected that exports may drop in the near term amid rising domestic production in India and China. Additionally, poor weather conditions in Australia may exert pressure on exports. Subdued buying interest by major importing countries may further pull down exports figures.