Indonesian thermal coal prices fell this week. Low-calorific value (CV) coal prices are assessed at $52/t FOB, down $5 w-o-w, while high-CV coal prices are at $121/t FOB. Prices have dropped amid low buying interest in the market. The supply-demand dynamics may change depending on weather patterns in Indonesia and infrastructural bottlenecks.
Indian portside prices down w-o-w Thermal coal prices of 4200 GAR coal at Kandla port have dropped INR 250/t w-o-w to INR 8,200/t. Offers for 3400 GAR coal at Kandla port were heard at around INR 5,600-5,700/t. However, deals were also heard concluded at INR 5,400-5,500/t levels for bulk offers. Indonesian thermal coal exports decreased by 10% m-o-m to 24.4 million tonnes (mnt) in January 2023 as against 27.05 mnt in December, CoalMint data show. Indonesian shipments to India stood at 5.07 mnt in January, up 9% m-o-m.
Outlook
Indonesian thermal coal prices are expected to fall further amid low demand and declining buying interest. As global coal prices correct from elevated levels along with moderation in overall inflation and energy prices, pressure will mount on Indonesian coal prices too. Also, given competitive offers from other destinations, prices may remain subdued.
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