Japan’s crude steel production is estimated to decline to 21.9 million tonnes (mnt) in the January-March period (Q1CY23) as compared to 23.1 mnt in the same period last year, according to the country’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). There is likely to be a decrease of more than 1 mnt compared to the same period of the previous year due to delay in recovery in demand from the automotive industry.
However, production is expected to rise marginally by 2% compared to 21.4 mnt in the previous quarter of October-December 2022 due to the restarting of some blast furnaces.
This is the fifth consecutive quarter of y-o-y decline in crude steel production and the third consecutive quarter of production below 22 mnt.
Crude steel production in FY22 is expected to be around 88.12 mnt. It is expected to fall below 90 mnt again after the decline in FY20 due to the coronavirus pandemic, the first decline in two years.
Demand from various sectors:
Demand from automobiles, shipbuilding and industrial machinery is expected to increase slightly while demand from construction and civil engineering is likely to decline y-o-y. Labour shortages at construction sites persist, and “downside risks need to be taken into account”, said METI.
The export environment is generally sluggish, but if overseas markets continue to improve, there is a possibility that there will be signs of a revival, especially for blast furnace-route products.
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