India’s thermal coal vessel arrivals at Indian ports had picked up only marginally during the first half of December 2022 to 5.49 million tonnes (mnt), CoalMint’ vessel line-up data showed, as against 5.47 mnt seen in the first half of November.
The imports did not depict any significant improvement on a monthly basis amid increased availability of domestic coal and despite steady demand from various end-user segments.
India has been focusing on improving domestic coal supplies to achieve its FY2022-23 (FY23) target of 900 mnt of output. The country’s total coal production in November stood at 76 mnt, rising by 14% m-o-m and 12% y-o-y.
With regard to end-user demand, amid cooler temperatures and ample domestic supplies, the power sector is not making only regular purchases. The cement sector is buying more of cheaper pet coke while the sponge iron sector is making steady purchases of both South African and Australian coals.
Out of the total imports, Indonesian volumes are the highest at 2.85 mnt being brought in by major trading companies such as Adani Enterprise, Agarwal Coal, Tata Power, Mohit Minerals and others. However, these are down compared to 4.13 mnt seen over 1-15 November, 2022. About 1.74 mn t of coal is expected to be sailed in second half of the month from the country.
Interestingly, shipments from Russia picked up to 0.63 mnt as compared to 0.28 mnt in the first half of November.
Shipments from South Africa pick up
Shipments from South Africa picked up to 0.79 mnt, significantly up against 0.28 mnt recorded in the same period in November (1-15). The Rashmi Group stood the largest importer at 0.16 mnt, followed by Adani Enterprise at 0.14 mn t and IMR Resources at 0.11 mn t. India has started importing more of the 4800 NAR, as 5500 NAR turned quite expensive. About 0.83 mn t of thermal coal is expected to be shipped in second half of the month.
Shipments from the US and Australia also increased m-o-m. Australian import shipments were recorded at 0.49 mnt during 1-15 December, against 0.35 mnt a month ago. Imports from the US were at 0.38 mnt during the said period, compared with November figures of 0.15 mn t. Indian sponge iron players are using more of 4600 NAR Australian coal for blending with South African coal due to its cost competitiveness.
Outlook
Thermal coal shipments in January are expected to be in a similar range as of December. No major rise is expected as domestic supplies are continuing to grow and demand is expected to remain largely unchanged from the end-user segments. However, in case Covid cases surge across the globe, its effect will be seen in the Indian market too and that may result in reduced demand and shipments into the country.
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