Australia’s coking coal exports rose by 15% m-o-m to 13.67 million tonnes (mnt) in November. The rise in volumes came amid the drop in coking coal prices especially since mid-November.
Australian coking coal prices that stood at $332/t in the first week of November came down by $85/t towards the last week of the month. Prices fell amid sufficient supplies in the market with weather-related supply disruptions getting resolved and limited demand from its top importer, India.
Qty in mnt
Indian steel demand scenario
Australia’s coking coal exports to India dropped by 4% m-o-m in November. Steel mills in India have sufficient stocks of the raw material at present. Besides, steel demand remains largely steady. According to SteelMint data, coking coal stock at Indian ports in the beginning of November stood at 6.04 mnt, much above the weekly average of 5.20 mnt.
While India’s steel consumption stood to be the highest for the year so far at 9.66 mnt in November, its steel imports stood at 0.49 mnt, up by 4% m-o-m, whereas the country’s crude steel output remained largely unchanged m-o-m at 10.3 mnt. This means that, although steel consumption has increased, the same is met via cheaper finished steel imports rather than any significant rise in domestic crude steel output.
In addition, Indian mills are heard to have booked cheaper met coke especially from China, impacting its coking coal requirement. In October-November 2022, India’s met coke imports were recorded at 0.87 mnt, up by more than 100% against a cumulative of previous two months.
Australia’s coking coal exports to Korea/Japan rise
Australia’s coking coal shipments to South Korea and Japan rose by 44% and 26% m-o-m respectively.
South Korea’s automotive exports hit a new record high in November due to robust demand for eco-friendly vehicles, giving a boost to its steel demand and so does coking coal requirement. Also, in case of Japan, auto sales remained robust, supporting steel and its raw material requirement.
Steel mills in Taiwan and Vietnam have opted production cuts as global steel demand remains lacklustre, resulting in reduced coking coal demand from both the countries.
Port wise exports
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Gladstone Port recorded the highest shipments with a 39% m-o-m rise in November. Imports from Newcastle Port rose by 100% m-o-m as no shipments were received in October due to heavy rains, disrupting the supplies from the port.
Company wise exports
Qty in mnt
The largest coking coal exporter, BHP, exported 4.38 mnt in November, followed by Anglo American and Jellinbah. Jellinbah exported the entire quantity from Gladstone Port.
Outlook
Australian coking coal exports are expected to remain in the similar range in December as demand from India remains limited but is buoyant from Japan and Korea. However, post December, Indian imports for Australian coal may see a rise as it has entered into a free trade agreement with the country which will come into effect from 29 December.
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