- Production in Odisha falls sharply on export duty impact
- Karnataka output drops y-o-y post SC verdict in May
- 20 mnt drop in output expected from initial projection of 255-265 mnt for 2022
India’s iron ore production fell around 3% y-o-y in the January-September, 2022 period due largely to the sharp downtrend in output since June-July after the imposition of steep export tariffs on finished steel and steelmaking raw materials.
SteelMint data shows that iron ore production in the first nine months of this calendar year dropped to around 181 million tonnes (mnt) from around 187 mnt in the year-ago period.
India’s iron ore production fell marginally in September to 15.3 mnt from a little under 16 mnt in August, data reveals.
State-wise production
It is noteworthy that production in Odisha, India key iron ore producing state, fell to around 100 mnt in 9MCY’22 compared with a little under 110 mnt in the corresponding period last year.
This is the key reason behind the decline in overall output during the period under review as production from Chhattisgarh remained largely stable y-o-y at under 30 mnt, while Jharkhand’s output, too, was recorded at stable levels of a little under 20 mnt.
Karnataka, however, witnessed production dropping by around 14% y-o-y to over 24 mnt in 9MCY’22 from over 28 mnt in the year-ago period. In September, production fell by over 30% on the year to 2.4 mnt from 3.35 mnt in September 2021.
Factors affecting production
The hike in iron ore export tariff (across grades) brought down the possibility of mineral dispatches. The prohibitive 45% duty on pellets and 50% tariff on iron ore of all grades triggered the threat of a supply glut in the market and producers slashed production in apprehension of a rapid fall in prices. This was especially true of pellet producers who drew back from lifting iron ore bought at auctions prior to the clampdown of duty.
Moreover, the 15% export duty on steel resulted in mills cutting production and taking maintenance breaks ahead of schedule, as the fear of surplus availability of steel in the domestic market proved to be a great dampener for prices. As a direct consequence, raw material offtake suffered.
On the other hand, iron ore production and sales in Karnataka declined in the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court’s verdict lifting curbs on exports and easing sales restrictions from Bellary, Chitradurga and Tumkur districts of the state. The verdict gave rise to a deadlock situation as market participants were unsure of the modalities of iron ore evacuation and dispatch. However, the situation has since eased.
The Supreme Court has raised the iron ore production ceiling in the state from 35 mnt to 50 mnt from the A and B category mines. As per SteelMint data, Karnataka was the second-largest iron ore producing state in India with over 40 mnt of output recorded in FY’22.
Outlook
Despite the fact that the production cap has been raised in Karnataka and mines are expanding capacity, output remains constrained due to the clampdown of export duty on iron ore and pellets.
“If the 50% export duty on all grades of iron ore remains in place, it is safe to assume that production from Odisha, which was around 145 mnt last fiscal, may drop to around 120-125 mnt in FY’23. The possible loss of iron ore production from Odisha may be around 20 mnt,” a senior Odisha government official told SteelMint.
India’s iron ore production in 2021 was around 246 mnt. SteelMint had estimated that capacity enhancement of both the PSU merchant miners as well as captive producers might drive production higher to 255-265 mnt in 2022. However, the current scenario may well warrant a downward revision from that estimate to the tune of around 20 mnt.
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