As global coal prices rose in 2021, Pakistan’s thermal coal imports registered just a modest increase of 7% y-o-y to 16.3 million tonnes (mn t), CoalMint’s vessel-line up data reveals.
Increasing construction activities and the gradual opening up of the industrial sector after the slight remission in Covid cases resulted in a rise in power demand in Pakistan, thereby supporting coal imports.
However, any sharp rise in coal imports were capped amid surging Covid cases during the second wave of the pandemic as well as financial hurdles and multi-year high thermal coal prices.
Indonesian imports rise by 4%
Amid limited supply and lower cargo availability from Indonesia, Pakistan’s total thermal coal imports from that country were recorded at 3.5 mn t, up 4% y-o-y.
With the sharp rise in Indonesian coal prices in the second half of the year, bulk imports remained subdued as buyers adopted a wait and watch policy.
High-CV 5800 GAR coal prices averaged at $104/t on FOB basis in CY’21, an increase of 93% on the year.
Australia’s imports shoot up by 95%
Amid a consistent chain of supply disruptions from Indonesia, South Africa and Russia, several Asian countries, including Pakistan, increased their imports of Australian coal.
Pakistan’s total imports from Australia in CY’21 stood at 1.6 mn t, up 95% y-o-y.
The rise in imports from Australia started from 2020 after the Chinese government put an unofficial ban on Australian coal leading to a sharp fall in prices.
South African imports up 8%
Despite subdued cement sales this year, Pakistan’s thermal coal imports from South Africa rose by 8% to 10.5 mn t in CY’21.
Pakistan’s total cement sales, the leading thermal consuming sector, fell by 4% on year to 56.3 mn t in CY’21, data released by the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association shows.
The rising cost of South African coal, which had gone up by 95% y-o-y, weighed on the cement sector as input costs surged.
However, importers were left with little room other than buying high-priced South African coal owing to the government’s flagship housing scheme of five million dwellings for the economically backward segment.
Imports from Russia fall sharply
Imports from Russia recorded a sharp fall by 59% y-o-y to 0.40 mn t in CY’21 as a major portion of the consignments were reportedly redirected to China and Europe, as China’s ban on Australian coal was in force.
Chinese power utilities had begun restocking for winter ahead of schedule to avert any crisis affecting the power sector.
Outlook
Pakistan’s coal imports are likely to remain supported in CY’22 given the sharp rise in economic activity even as the gradual recovery from the pandemic continues.
However, any major rise in imports may also get capped as the country increases its reliance on renewable energy.
Leave a Reply