Thermal coal vessel arrival at Indian ports from various origins continued to remain under pressure amidst the volatility in global prices in recent weeks, resulting in reduced portside stock.
As per CoalMint vessel line-up data, vessels carrying 3.64 million tonnes (mn t) of thermal coal will arrive at Indian ports between 20 Dec’21-23 Jan’22, a 31% m-o-m decrease. This sharp decline in shipments comes against the backdrop of improved domestic supplies along wth end-users adopting a ‘wait-and-watch’ mode before making any major bookings.
Output from Coal India Ltd (CIL) and its subsidiaries have risen by 4% m-o-m to 53.8 mn t in Nov’21, while offerings have also witnessed an exponential growth at 19.47 mn t last month with supplies picking up steadily across all sectors.
Several end-users who resorted to booking bulk quantities in the last two months in anticipation of tight supply during the winter season have currently kept themselves on the sidelines, awaiting a further price correction, informed market participants.
| Country | Vessel arrival from 20 Nov-23 Dec’21 | Vessel arrival from 20 Dec’21-23 Jan’22 | % Difference |
| Indonesia | 2.1 | 1.5 | -30 |
| Australia | 0.9 | 0.7 | -20 |
| South Africa | 1.2 | 0.6 | -49 |
| The US | 0.5 | 0.5 | -17 |
| Russia | 0.1 | 0.3 | +271 |
| China | 0.3 | 0.1 | -75 |
| Grand Total | 5.3 | 3.6 | -31 |
*Qty in mn t
Out of the total Indonesian coal arriving, around 0.39 mn t booked by Adani Enterprise is set to arrive at Gangavaram, and Navlakhi ports, followed by Nayara Energy with 0.30 mn t at Salaya Port.
In case of Australian coal shipments, JSW Steel is set to bring in the highest volume of 0.16 mn t at Krishnapatnam Port, followed by RINL at 0.08 mn t at Gangavaram Port.
Bhushan Steel is set to bring in the highest quantity of South African coal at 0.17 mn t, while Ultratech Cement is set to bring in 0.17 mn t of US coal.
Port-wise vessels arrival
A total volume of 0.76 mn t of thermal coal is set to arrive at Krishnapatnam Port from Australia (0.35 mn t), South Africa (0.16 mn t), Russia (0.09), China (0.08 mn t) and Indonesia (0.07 mn t).
Gangavaram Port is the next highest receiver of thermal coal in this period with a total volume of 0.49 mn t coming from all major importing destinations. The port is set to receive 0.24 mn t of thermal coal from Indonesia, 0.17 mn t from South Africa, and 0.08 mn t from Australia.
Kandla Port is set to receive a combined 0.41 mn t from Indonesia, and the US, while Haldia is set to receive a total of 0.06 mn t from South Africa.
Party-wise vessels arrival at Indian ports
| Receiver | Quantity in mn t |
| Adani Enterprise | 0.51 |
| Nayara Energy | 0.30 |
| Tata Power | 0.17 |
| Bhushan Steel | 0.17 |
| JSW Energy | 0.16 |
| Adani Enterprise | 0.51 |
Outlook
Amidst the volatility in global thermal coal prices, Indian buyers have adopted a ‘wait and watch’ mode and postponed their imported coal bookings. Subsequently, vessel arrival at Indian ports is likely to fall further in the upcoming weeks.
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