South Africa’s total thermal coal export shipments registered a 31% m-o-m rise to 6 million tonnes (mn t) in Oct’21, mainly driven by consignments sent to China, Pakistan, and South Korea.
A sharp rise to other major destinations, however, was limited due to the fluctuations seen in thermal coal prices last month.
South African RB2 (5500 NAR) prices corrected by 25% from their peak in October to $143/t as domestic coal prices in China corrected sharply following the government’s intervention.
SA exports to China up manifold
South African coal shipments to China rose by a whopping 558% m-o-m to 0.6 mn t in Oct’21. Lower shipments from Indonesia to China over the last few months compelled traders to opt for South African coal.
However, by the end of last month, lower enquiries pulled down South African prices, indicating lower bookings from major importing countries.
Ahead of the approaching winter, Chinese traders, last month, focused on securing inventory, before the government announced capping of domestic coal prices, and improved supplies.
Coal production in China has risen to a six-year peak of 375.1 mn t in Oct’21, as per customs data. Since July this year, the government has approved expansion of more than 153 coal mines to boost output and control prices.
Shipments to India rise 7%
South African export shipments to India rose 7% m-o-m to 1.73 million tonnes (mn t) in Oct’21. Shipments to the country had risen sharply in Sept’21 when manufacturing units faced an acute coal shortage.
Indian buyers defer bookings: Indian importers preferred to delay major import bookings in October from South Africa expecting major corrections, as end-users kept to the sidelines booking smaller quantities.
An improvement in domestic supply further allowed end-user units to wait-and-watch.
As on 17 Nov’21, coal inventory with power plants stood at 17.2 million tonnes (mn t) which are sufficient to tide over eight days of usage, as per data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).
Exports to Pakistan, Korea up
South African coal export shipments to Pakistan were recorded at 0.9 mn t, up 26% m-o-m amid rising cement demand last month.
Shipments to South Korea also rose to 0.75 mn t, up 56% m-o-m.
Export shipments to Netherlands rose for the third-consecutive month to 0.6 mn t, up 244% m-o-m.
Outlook
CoalMint believes South African coal exports to various countries are likely to remain high in the upcoming month amid dropping winter temperatures in North-east Asia. Shipments to China, however, may remain limited due to its improving coal supplies.
Leave a Reply