Indonesia’s thermal coal export shipments registered a 9% m-o-m fall to 27.92 million tonnes (mn t) in Sept’21, CoalMint’s vessel line-up data revealed.
The monthly decline in coal export shipments were mainly attributed to the severe logistic disruption last month amid heavy rainfall and slowdown in deliveries as miners declared force majeure.
M-o-m export shipments from south Kalimantan fell 21% to 7.9 mn t, and from east Kalimantan 9% to 15.6 mn t.
Shipments from north Kalimanatan and north Sumatra were, however, less affected, rising to 1.44 mn t and 0.40 mn t, respectively.
Tight domestic supply curbs exports
Heavy rainfall and flash floods in south and east Kalimantan provinces last month disrupted coal production making several miners declare force majeure on deliveries. Most Indonesian miners were under pressure to ensure deliveries to domestic power utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN).The slowdown in mining activity had also slowed their pace of domestic supply.
Throughout September, buyers of Indonesian coal complained of delayed deliveries , while several Indonesian vessels were also stuck at Chinese ports due to strict Covid quarantine measures .
Indonesia’s benchmark Harga Batubara Acuan (HBA) coal price, further rose to $160.6/t for Oct’21, up 8% m-o-m. The benchmark price has been trading at a decadal high since the last few months amid constrained coal supply in the country.
Exports to India fall slightly
Indonesia’s thermal coal export shipments to India dropped slightly by 5% m-o-m to 4.9 mn t in Sept’21 amid the elevated imported prices. However, an acute domestic coal shortage limited any sharp fall as coal-consuming units had little option but to lean back on imported coal.
Till mid-September, manufacturing units in India expected the domestic coal supply situation to improve and continued to procure in smaller quantities. However, later with the crisis worsening , demand picked up sharply as traders rushed to secure coal amid weak availability.
Majority of low-CV Indonesian coal were heard to be making their way to the country last month, market participants informed.
Coal exports shipments to the Philippines rose 20% m-o-m to 1.92 mn t, while that to Malaysia also rose by 13% m-o-m to 1.49 mn t, CoalMint vessel line-up data showed.
Exports to China, Vietnam decline
Vessel congestion at Chinese ports last month led to a 19% m-o-m decline in Indonesian coal export shipments to 12.43 mn t. Coal demand from Chinese power utilities remained higher last month as they began their winter restocking. However, weather related disruption failed to bridge the supply gap and Chinese traders inclined more towards imports from South African, Russia, and Mozambique.
Export shipments to Vietnam fell sharply by 49% m-o-m to 0.06 mn t in Sept’21 as traders switched to more of Australian coal procurement.
Outlook
CoalMint believes Indonesian coal export shipments are likely to rise next month onwards as miners ramp up output to meet China’s robust demand ahead of winter.
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