Australian premium hard coking coal prices have significantly increased since last week, on the back of higher priced bids and fresh bookings concluded at elevated levels in the Asian markets, excluding China.
- Premium low-volatile (PLV) hard coking coal (HCC) and 64 Mid Vol HCC grades are assessed at around $151.00/tonne (+11.9% week-on-week) and $134.25/t (+10.3% w-o-w) FOB Hay Point, Australia.
- For Indian buyers, these prices amount to $177.15/t (+9.4% w-o-w) and $160.40/t (+7.8% w-o-w) respectively on CNF India basis.
- The Australia-India dry bulk freight rate is currently assessed at $26.15/t (-3.1% w-o-w) for delivery by Panamax vessel class.
So far this week, two new bookings have been concluded until yesterday (27 May’21)for Australian premium HCC, with late Jun’21 laycan, as per latest CoalMint reports.
The ex-Chinese Asian spot markets continued witnessing firm buying interest with indicative tradable bids placed between $139/t and 143/t for Jul’21 laycan cargoes of Australian PLV HCC. Notably, the highest bid was heard at $145/t FOB Australia for a 75,000 t cargo, with Jul’21laycan.
In addition, European steelmakers were keen to buy Australian materials as the prices are relatively more attractive now, and also because of the China-led supply tightness of North American coals in the FOB market.
Nevertheless, the Indian spot demand outlook for Australian coking coal appears bleak, given that the resurgent pandemic could well affect the country’s steel production. Moreover, major Indian steel mills have already stocked up for June and July.
Indian coking coal imports subside sharply as buyers wait for clear price direction
India’s coking coal imports fell by over 7% month-on-month (m-o-m) to 4.71 million tonnes (mn t) in Apr’21 due to decreased shipments from Australia among others — Indian coking coal imports from Australia registered a 10% m-o-m reduction to 3.83 mn t in Apr’21.
Stock positions at Major Ports in India
Total coking coal stock at major Indian ports at the end of last week (16 – 20 May’21) had increased to 6.00 mn t, up by 2.61% against 5.85 in the previous week.
Presently, Coking coal stock at Paradip port is 1.76 mn t, down by 3.84% w-o-w; while inventory at Dhamra port is 1.49 mn t, up 13.92% w-o-w.
Major Indian ports include Gangavaram, Paradip, Mundra, Vizag, Dhamra, Krishnapatnam, Kandla, Haldia, Navlakhi, Magdalla, Hazira, Karaikal, Tuticorin, Dahej, Goa, Jamnagar, Mangalore, Bhavnagar, Kakinada, Muldwaraka and Pipavav.
Outlook
The Indian market outlook for spot buying of imported coking coal is presently seen as modest as buyers are closely monitoring the worsened pandemic situation and holding back on seaborne procurement.
As a result, upside support for Australian coking coal prices remains limited as key coking coal-consuming companies are avoiding spot exposures in India, the world’s second-biggest coking coal importer.
Australian coking coal prices are largely anticipated to recede to lower levels amid persistent downward pressure from oversupply until China’s import ban on Australian coals is lifted.
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