India’s coking coal and pulverized coal for injection (PCI) import shipments have totaled 57.19 million tonnes (mn t) in CY 2020 (Jan-Dec’20) — up by almost 2% from 56.10 mn t during CY 2019.
On a month-on-month basis, the country’s coking coal imports rose by 18.9% to a year-high of 5.57 mn t in Dec’20, compared with 4.68 mn t in Nov’20, on increased shipments from Australia.
Over three-fourths of India’s coking coal import shipments continued to be originated from Australia.
India’s coking coal imports rebounded since Aug’20 – from a near two-year low in Jul’20 – amid recovering steel demand, mainly because of a rise in domestic steel consumption.
Contrarily, however, the country’s PCI import shipments have decreased by 6.9% m-o-m to 1.11 mn t in Dec’20, as against 1.19 mn t in Nov’20.
Source: Vessel lineup data
India to benefit from China’s ban on Australian coking coal—
Following China’s ban on Australian coking coal since mid-October last year, the threat of excess supply had weighed on prices, thereby reducing the production cost of steelmakers using the blast furnace route in India.
Barring weather-related supply disruptions, Australian premium hard coking coal (HCC) prices would be hovering around $120/t CNF India for now.
India’s coking coal imports from Australia registered a 22.2% m-o-m growth in the last month of December but decreased by 11.9% y-o-y to 36.36 mn t in CY20.
Indian inbound shipments of coking coal from Mozambique and USA also grew remarkably last month whereas coking coal shipments from Indonesia and Canada reduced by considerable volumes contrasted with the previous month of November.
The following table presents a detailed country-wise break-up of the monthly import data.
| Origin | Dec’20 | Nov’20 | M-o-M Change | Dec’19 | Y-o-Y Change |
| Australia | 4.315495 | 3.532802 | 22.2% | 3.544342 | 21.8% |
| USA | 0.376658 | 0.331689 | 13.6% | 0.258542 | 45.7% |
| Mozambique | 0.322917 | 0.181942 | 77.5% | 0.154466 | 109.1% |
| Canada | 0.322318 | 0.336836 | -4.3% | 0.232373 | 38.7% |
| Indonesia | 0.158185 | 0.225546 | -29.9% | 0.164184 | -3.7% |
| Russia | 0.072697 | 0.073900 | -1.6% | ||
| TOTAL | 5.568270 | 4.682715 | 18.9% | 4.353907 | 27.9% |
Quantity in mn t
Current Market Scenario & Near-term Outlook—
The Indian market has been lately observing a considerable increase in enquiries for seaborne coking coal; however, spot transactions were relatively limited other than existing long-term contracts.
Indian buyers are mostly refraining from immediate procurement of seaborne coking coal cargoes in hopes that offers could decline further.
Seaborne coking coal sellers are targeting the Indian market where buyers are finally showing an interest to procure spot cargoes and are receptive to spot fixed-price offers, having sat on the sidelines in the previous months.
Indian steel market sentiment was relatively steady last month while price expectations for seaborne coking coal were lifted higher amid the strength seen in domestic coking coal prices of all grades.
Traders anticipate that imported coking coal demand would pick up soon on restocking needs, as the country’s steel plants have been operating at optimum blast furnace capacity levels in recent months.
Full-scale demand revival for spot purchases of seaborne coking coal by Indian steel mills will likely take a while and is anticipated to start showing signs of robust growth in late February this year at the earliest.
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By Aditya Sinha
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