Australian coking coal prices stay stable on subdued liquidity

The FoB price for Australian premium low-volatile (PLV) hard coking coal (HCC) remained range bound this week amid moderate year-end demand.

However, one trade for 60,000 t of premium low-volatile material with mid-February laycan was concluded yesterday.

Even as the spot market continued to witness transactions for seaborne coking coal, from non-Australian origins, concluded at higher price levels to Chinese end-users, trading activities in the ex-China FoB market have considerably slowed down following the conclusion of a series of transactions in the past couple of weeks.

Near-term price expectations for seaborne coking coal remain moderate amid ample supply—

India-delivered premium hard coking coal price for Australian-originated material is anticipated to remain relatively weaker (than US coking coals) because Indian buying interest for seaborne coking coal is presently limited despite ample material availability at competitive price levels.

At this juncture, it’s also being predicted that China may not resume imports of Australian coal in the first quarter of this year and market concerns are rife that the ongoing ban will continue indefinitely.

In addition, Australian semisoft coking coal prices have limited upside potential in the near term as premium hard coking coal prices continue to hover at a multiyear low level of around $100/t FOB Australia. Weaker grades of coking coals have lost their price competitiveness against premium hard coking coal as a result of that.

India Coking Coal Import Shipment Vessel Lineup

CoalMint’s latest vessel lineup data reveals that a total quantity of 2,540,232t of Australian coking coal was expected to reach various Indian ports by 25th Dec’20.

824,850t Dhamra (Odisha)

88,000t Ennore (Tamil Nadu)

80,950t Gangavaram (Visakhapatnam)

176,400t Haldia (West Bengal)

75,940t Jaigarh (Maharashtra)

305,593t Krishnapatnam (Andhra Pradesh)

154,000t Mormugao (Goa)

286,263t Paradip (Odisha)

45,000t Vizag (Andhra Pradesh)

Price Assessments

Latest prices for the Premium HCC and the 64 Mid Vol HCC grades are assessed at around $102.50/t and $93.50/t FOB Hay Point, Australia.

For Indian buyers, these prices amount to $114.55/t and $105.55/t respectively on CNF India basis.

Australia-India dry bulk freight rate is currently assessed at $12.05/t for delivery by Panamax vessel class.

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By Aditya Sinha