The vessel-line up data (as on 10 Aug’20) maintained with CoalMint reveals that a total quantity of 4.65 mn t of thermal coal is coming into India in the next 12-15 days, up by 59% against previous fortnight ended on 12 Aug’20.
—The highest quantity of 1.05 mn t is set to arrive at Mundra port (last fortnight Krishnapatnam received highest quantity of 0.55 mn t), with about 30% of the thermal coal quantity coming from Indonesia.
— Out of this, a combined quantity of 0.33 mn t of two entities, Adani Power and Coastal Gujrat Power is expected to arrive at Mundra port from Indonesia in the next fortnight (ending on 26 Aug’20).
—Navlakhi port is the next highest receiver of expected thermal coal at 0.78 mn t and Agarwal Coal is the largest buyer with 0.29 mn t coming from Indonesia.
—Gangavaram port is third highest receiver of 0.40 mn t thermal coal coming to Indian shores by the 26th of August.
Quantity from Indonesia surges, S.Africa falls
Out of the total quantity of 4.65 mn t imports, highest quantity is coming from Indonesia at 3.43 mn t(+135% against last fortnight) followed by South Africa at 0.75 mn t (-15% against last fortnight).
Adani Enterprise continues to remain at top
Adani Enterprise continues to tops the list with 0.50 mn t of thermal coal expected to arrive at Indian ports with majority coming from Indonesia (most of it at Hazira and Ennore port). This is followed by Agarwal Coal with its 0.37 mn t of thermal coal coming at Mangalore, Navlakhi and Vizag port.
Outlook: CoalMint Analysis
CoalMint learned from market participants that with increase in sponge iron prices in India, the thermal coal buyers have increased their import bookings in anticipation that coal demand would also rise.
In fact, the September month’s API index for South African thermal coal has also risen amid positive sentiments in its biggest buyer, India.
Although the surge in sponge iron prices is driven more by increase in raw material (iron ore costs) against improvement in demand, the industry experts believe that the thermal coal demand in India would improve in the coming months as the monsoon season (period of dull demand) will be over by the time cargoes arrive.
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