According to the vessel line-up data maintained by CoalMint research, Pakistan’s thermal coal imports for January month 2020 has been recorded at 1.20 MnT against 1.32 MnT in the previous month of Dec’19 (down by 9% m-o-m). If we compare the same y-o-y basis, the same was recorded at 1.30 MnT in Jan’19.
In the first seven months (Jul’19 – Jan’20) of ongoing fiscal year of FY20, Pakistan’s coal imports have been recorded at 8.73 MnT against 8.83 MnT in the corresponding period of previous fiscal FY19.
The country usually makes highest imports from South Africa followed by Indonesia and then Russia. In the month of Jan’2020, there was fall in country’s imports from South Africa from 1 MnT in Dec’19 to 0.60 MnT in Jan’20 whereas imports from Indonesia has increased marginally from 0.31 MnT in Dec’19 to 0.49 MnT in Jan’20.
Russian coal arrives at Pakistan port after six months
There were no coal imports into Pakistan from Russia since the start of FY20 (from Jul’19). However, in Jan’20 the country has imported about 0.12 MnT from Russia.
The falling transportation cost is aiding and will continue to do so the Russian coal producers to compete in the global market. According to the market reports, in January 2020, Russian Railways have raised rail tariffs by 3.5% as part of the annual tariff indexing process. However, this is being offset by declining rail car rental rates amid improved rail car availability and declining cargo loading on the Russian Railways network. The average rail car rental rate for 2020 is RUB 1500/day which was RUB1800/day in 2019, thus resulting in 8% or USD 2-3/MT reduction in rail cost (exchange rate of 1 RUB = USD 67.6/MT).
Port rates for coal handling are unregulated and are falling too in Russia. It is being estimated that the average 2020 port costs will be USD 1-2/MT lower in the eastern ports and USD 3-4/MT lower in the western ports compared to 2019. So, the total cost saved can vary anywhere between USD 3-4/MT in eastern port and USD 5-7/MT in case of western port coal shipments.
During Jul’19 to Jan’20, Pakistan has imported about 6.34 MnT of thermal coal from South Africa, followed by Indonesia at 2.20 MnT and Russia at 0.12 MnT.
Power sector leads the way
The highest imports of thermal coal during first seven months of FY20 has been made by Power sector at 4.3 MnT followed by cement sector at 2.16 MnT and by traders at 0.71 MnT.
In Jan’20 there was a 45% decline m-o-m basis in thermal coal imports by cement sector at 0.24 MnT whereas power sector imported about 0.57 MnT during the month, up by 5.5% m-o-m basis.
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