Russia Steel Exports Analysis, Q1 CY19

According to World Steel Association, Russia’s crude steel production recorded at 5,790,000 MT during Mar’19 as against 5,230,000 MT in Feb’19. Inline in Q1 CY19 the production stood at 16,810,000 MT as against 16,550,000 in Q1 CY18, surge by 1.57% Y-o-Y.

Russian coal exports rise : During the first quarter of CY19 (Jan’19-Mar’19), Russian coal exports have totalled 54.37 MnT, rising 15% on the year from 47.25 MnT recorded in first quarter of CY18.

Russian Coal Exports Up 29% M-o-M in Mar’19 to 24,219,020 MT in Mar’19 compared with 18,751,475 MT in Feb’19.

The country had witnessed a progressive rise in exports on monthly basis since the beginning of CY19, besides export volumes have also been higher y-o-y in the past two months.

Russian exports have predominantly driven by infrastructure developments at its eastern port — which delivers coal to Asia, wherein Japan’s search for diversified sources of supply and South Korea’s new regulations demanding more low sulphur coal, has aided the growth.

Russia Iron Ore Exports Down 7% in Q1 CY19: Russia iron ore exports for Q1 CY19 witnessed at 5.7 MnT, down 7% against 6.12 MnT in Q4 CY18. On yearly basis, exports picked up 12% as compared to 5.08 MnT in Q1 CY18. Ukraine stood the largest importer of Russian iron ore for the quarter at 1.35 MnT, down 34% as against 2.06 MnT in Q4 CY18.

China stood second largest importer at 1.23 MnT, up 15% as compared to 1.07 MnT in last quarter. Chinese imports of iron ore from Russia increased for the quarter amidst supply shortage from world’s largest iron ore producers Australia and Brazil for the quarter.

Russian exports for Mar’19 witnessed at 1.75 MnT, down 20% as against 2.18 MnT in Feb’19. On yearly basis, exports picked up 20% as compared to 1.48 MnT in Feb’19. China stood the largest importer for the month at 0.51 MnT followed by Ukraine at 0.36 MnT.

Ferrous scrap exports drop 41% in Q1 CY19 – Russia exported 765,213 MT of ferrous scrap in Q1 CY19 witnessing a drop of 41% Q-o-Q against 1,303,995 MT in Q4 CY18. While exports dropped 28% Y-o-Y as against 1,067,655 MT ferrous scrap in Q1 CY18. Fewer bookings were observed in Q1 CY19 from leading importer Turkey due to local currency issues and political uncertainty while limited buying activity was witnessed from South Korea too.

Turkey remained the largest importer occupying a share of 49% in total scrap exports from Russia in Q1 CY19. It imported 377,340 MT in Q1 CY19, witnessing a drop of 36% Q-o-Q from Q4 CY18. Other top importers were South Korea (148,810 MT, down 41%) and Belarus (93,729 MT, down 60%) occupying a 19% and 12% share respectively on quarterly basis.

On monthly basis, scrap exports increased after a gap of 6 months in Mar’19 as the country exported 276,636 MT of ferrous scrap in Mar’19 as against 255,139 MT in Feb’19, when it had reached 2 year low levels.

After completion of one year ban on Russian ferrous scrap in Jan’19, clarity on another potential scrap export ban is awaited.

Billet exports from the top exporter – Russia, registered a slight gain of about 3.16% Y-o-Y in Q1 CY19 & stood at 4,067,502 MT as against 3,942,566 MT in Q1 CY18.

As per custom data maintained by SteelMint stats, the nation has exported around 1,413,723 MT billet in Mar’19, surge by 4.9% against 1,347,792 MT in Feb’19. On yearly basis, exports decline by 10.7 % in Mar’19 as against of 1,582,353 MT in Mar’18.

Taiwan has imported approximately 24.7% (349,213 MT) billet from Russia and maintains the top number in March 2019, followed by Mexico 18.6% (263,712 MT) & Egypt 9.03% (127,777 MT). Taiwan was imported around 22.39% (910,785 MT) of the total billet exported by Russia in the Jan-Mar’19 (Q1 CY19).

Inline Pig iron exports have registered rise by 19.3% M-o-M in Mar’19 at 555,491 MT as against 465,745 MT in Feb’19. US remains the largest buyer of Russian Pig iron during Jan-Mar’19 and recorded at about 523,443 MT (42.55%), followed by Italy at 284,123 MT (23.09%) & Turkey at 200,390 MT (16.29%).

Russia Finish long exports recorded all time high in Mar’19- Nation’s finish long export recorded at 398,530 MT in Mar’19, rise by 32% as compared to 301,896 MT in Feb’19.

On yearly basis, exports rise by 18.5.6 % in Mar’19 as against of 336,184 MT in Mar’18. Kazakhstan continues to remain the largest Finish long unload country to Russia. However in Mar’19, Netherlands topped the list with 52,002 MT, followed by Kazakhstan at 51,137 MT, Belarus at 34,020 MT & Lithuania at 30,148 MT.

Russia flat steel exports rise by 12.4% M-o-M in Mar’19 to 796,663 MT in comparison to 708,676 MT in Feb’19. While on quarterly basis export stood at 2,347,940 MT in Q1 CY19, decline by 17% Y-o-Y against 2,831,945 MT in Q1 CY18.

Turkey stands as the major flat steel importer to Russia in Q1 CY19. In Turkey bearish market sentiments amid weakening prices along with increased HRC imports duty from 3.5% to 6% which is effective from 1 Jan’19 resulted to lowering export volumes from Russia.

In addition to this, uncertainty related to mayoral elections led to subdued demand in Turkey. Thus, these reasons can be attributed to decline in Russian export volumes to Turkey in Q1 CY19.

Russian Ferro Alloy exports were considerably higher in Q1 CY19: Russian Ferro Alloys Exports were higher in Q1 CY19 by 33% from 0.15 MnT in Q4 CY18 to 0.2 MnT in Q1 CY19. However, in Mar’19 the exports were lower by 14% as compared to the Feb’19. Ferro Silicon exports were significantly down in Mar’19 as compared to previous month, whereas, the exports of Ferro Chrome and Ferro Manganese were stable. Netherlands and Japan remained the top two importers from Russia in Mar’19.

Source: SteelMint Stats
Quantity in MT