According to the vessel line-up data compiled by CoalMint Research, South African premium coal terminal Richards Bay (RBCT) has recorded Non-coking coal shipment of 77.90 MnT in CY17.
Exports from RBCT have remained firm in CY17, supported by strong demand from India and, to a lesser extent from Pakistan and South Korea.
RBCT’s Non-Coking coal shipments had hit the year-high total of 7.76 MnT in Dec’17, largely driven by aggressive buying from India, the country in turn had also received its highest coal shipment during the month.
During CY17, India had a share in 44% of the total Non-Coking coal shipments from RBCT; Pakistan came behind at second followed by South Korea, Netherlands and Taiwan.
Source: CoalMint Research | Quantity in MnT
Indian Coal Buying Trend in CY17:
First Quarter:
Indian demand for South African coal is largely driven by Sponge iron sector which are their chief consumers. However, the beginning of CY17 had witness subdued demand from Indian buyers as they had preferred domestic coal supplied by CIL.
Total Non-Coking coal import from RBCT during the first quarter of CY17 (Jan’17-Mar’17) was 6.86 MnT.
Second Quarter:
During the second quarter of the year, restocking demand ahead of the monsoon period had increased the appetite for Imported South African coal, as many Indian ports were to be closed during the rainy season. Total coal during the second quarter of CY17 had increased 35% Q-o-Q to 9.27 MnT.
Third Quarter:
During the rainy season, Indian coal imports were slowed down as many buyers had stocked enough coal; also the confusion regarding the implementation of GST had also affected coal buying.
Demand for coal saw abrupt increase during Aug-Sep, as in the period of low coal-stock availability in power plants; Government had regulated coal supply for Non-power. Non-Coking coal imports in Sep’17 had increased 24% M-o-M to 3.56 MnT, as many buyers were in a buying spree after waiting too long for the monsoon to end.
Still, total coal received in the third quarter was down 7% Q-o-Q to 8.58 MnT.
Fourth Quarter:
The coal shortage in the country forced buyers to remain active in export market despite best efforts from CIL to meet the demands.
Coal buying was also supported by domestic coal supply cut for Non-power sector (MCL had asked Non-power sector to lift only 80% of the scheduled quantity during Oct’17-Dec’17). Moreover, the ban imposed on pet coke had also boosted demand for coal.
India had received its highest Non-Coking coal shipment from RBCT in Dec’17, with imports of 3.77 MnT during the month. While total coal received during the quarter rose 7% Q-o-Q to 9.19 MnT.
Source: CoalMint Research | Quantity in MnT
Future Outlook for Indian Buyers:
Indian demand for South African coal is expected to remain firm in 2018. With many power plants in India are running with low coal inventories, it is likely that CIL will continue to prefer power sector for coal supply.
Non-power sector on the other hand would be heading towards South African market to meet their demand, which in turn would also support coal prices.
South African coal prices currently have been rising due to the ongoing demand and disruption in coal supply. 5500 NAR coal was offered at USD 81/MT, Fob Richards Bay.
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